Toulouse
vs
Lyon
Ligue 1 prediction
The model makes it 36% Toulouse, 25% draw, 39% Lyon — fair odds of 2.78, 4.00 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Toulouse 1.50, Lyon 1.59.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Toulouse vs Lyon
- 10 May 2026Toulouse 2–1 LyonLigue 1
- 5 October 2025Lyon 1–2 ToulouseLigue 1
- 18 January 2025Lyon 0–0 ToulouseLigue 1
- 29 September 2024Toulouse 1–2 LyonLigue 1
- 15 March 2024Toulouse 2–3 LyonLigue 1
- 10 December 2023Lyon 3–0 ToulouseLigue 1
The two sides
Toulouse carry a model rating of 6.73 against 6.91 for Lyon. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Lyon L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.50 goals for Toulouse and 1.59 for Lyon. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Toulouse rate 0.82 in attack and 1.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lyon rate 1.09 and 0.97.
That points to 60% for over two and a half goals and 62% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lyon the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.5 expected goals for Toulouse against 1.59 for Lyon. Toulouse's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.09/0.97 for Lyon.