Toulouse vs Lyon Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Toulouse 0-2 Lyon.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Toulouse, 24% draw, 41% Lyon — fair odds of 2.86, 4.17 and 2.44.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Ligue 1 (France) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Lyon at 41%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Toulouse vs Lyon
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 16G. RestesG
- 94I. DialloD
- 3M. McKenzieD
- 2R. NicolaisenD
- 12C. TapeD
- 23C. CasseresM
- 31N. SchmidtM
- 7J. VignoloM
- 8T. JorgensenM
- 10Y. GbohoM
- 9S. HidalgoF
- 60M. NifloreG
- 19D. OdoguD
- 5S. KoumbassaD
- 77M. SauerM
- 22R. MessaliM
- 28M. SakaM
- 37I. AziziF
- 11S. OppongF
- 13J. Russell-RoweF
- 40R. DescampsG
- 13Z. AthekameD
- 20F. BacherD
- 22C. MataD
- 76M. OuedraogoD
- 2M. BidstrupM
- 39M. de CarvalhoM
- 99N. NarteyM
- 26K. BoudacheF
- 45R. HimbertF
- 24J. DuranvilleF
- 1D. GreifG
- 3N. TagliaficoD
- 8C. TolissoM
- 23T. MortonM
- 6T. TessmannM
- 10P. SulcM
- 11M. FofanaF
- 7E. NuamahF
- 17L. OpendaF
Form going into Toulouse vs Lyon
Toulouse
No earlier matches on record this season.
Lyon
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Fenerbahçe18 August 2026
- W3-0Sparta Praha11 August 2026
- L1-2away to Sparta Praha4 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Toulouse | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 13 |
| 5 | Lyon | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Toulouse vs Lyon
- 10 May 2026Toulouse 2–1 LyonLigue 1
- 5 October 2025Lyon 1–2 ToulouseLigue 1
- 18 January 2025Lyon 0–0 ToulouseLigue 1
- 29 September 2024Toulouse 1–2 LyonLigue 1
- 15 March 2024Toulouse 2–3 LyonLigue 1
Leading scorers: Toulouse and Lyon
Toulouse
GoalsAssists
- C. Tengstedt51
Lyon
GoalsAssists
- E. Nuamah41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Lyon won 2–0 at Toulouse. The model had made a win for Lyon its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: N. Nartey 68' for Lyon, M. Fofana 85' for Lyon. On expected goals it finished 2.63–0.16.