Lens vs Auxerre Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Lens 5-2 Auxerre.
Before kick-off the model made it 87% Lens, 9% draw, 4% Auxerre — fair odds of 1.15, 11.11 and 25.00.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Lens at 87%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lens vs Auxerre
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 40Robin RisserG
- 3Maik NawrockiD
- 25Ismaelo GaniouD
- 31Souleymane SagnanD
- 23Saud AbdulhamidM
- 27Michaël CuisanceM
- 8Yassine TitraouiM
- 14Matthieu UdolM
- 10Florian ThauvinF
- 29Franjo IvanovićF
- 19Abdallah SimaF
- 16Mathieu GorgelinG
- 38Mezian MesloubM
- 5Andrija BulatovićM
- 22Michał SkóraśF
- 21Amadou HaidaraM
- 9Thorgan HazardM
- 18Rayan FofanaF
- 7Florian SotocaF
- 11Odsonne ÉdouardF
- 23Mamadou DiopG
- 27Lamine SyD
- 20Sinaly DiomandéD
- 15Christ MakossoD
- 92Clement AkpaD
- 8Naouirou AhamadaM
- 46Arthur PiedfortM
- 5Kévin DanoisM
- 21Romain FaivreF
- 10Danny NamasoF
- 77Aristide ZossouF
- 1Paul NardiG
- 22Fredrik OppegårdD
- 35Elikya LegrosD
- 45Salimou DanfakhaD
- 18Lasso CoulibalyM
- 7Josué CasimirF
- 32Rayan MandengueD
- 36Tidiane DevernoisM
- 34Lamfia DioubatéM
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Lens | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 13 |
| 14 | Auxerre | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lens vs Auxerre
- 17 January 2026Lens 1–0 AuxerreLigue 1
- 4 October 2025Auxerre 1–2 LensLigue 1
- 27 April 2025Lens 0–4 AuxerreLigue 1
- 14 December 2024Auxerre 2–2 LensLigue 1
- 3 June 2023Auxerre 1–3 LensLigue 1
Leading scorers: Lens and Auxerre
Lens
GoalsAssists
- F. Thauvin57
Auxerre
GoalsAssists
- C. Archer60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Lens beat Auxerre 5–2. The model had made a win for Lens its most likely outcome, at 87%, so the call held; the score it named was 3–0. The goals: F. Thauvin (penalty) 12' for Lens, F. Ivanovic 49' for Lens, S. Abdulhamid 54' for Lens, D. Namaso (penalty) 61' for Auxerre, I. Ganiou 66' for Lens, L. Sy 69' for Auxerre, F. Thauvin (penalty) 88' for Lens. Sent off: C. Makosso (Auxerre) 35'. On expected goals it finished 1.92–0.17.