Lens
vs
Auxerre
Ligue 1 prediction
The model makes it 87% Lens, 9% draw, 4% Auxerre — fair odds of 1.15, 11.11 and 25.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (9%).
Expected goals: Lens 3.68, Auxerre 0.84.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 83%, under 2.5: 17%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Lens vs Auxerre
- 17 January 2026Lens 1–0 AuxerreLigue 1
- 4 October 2025Auxerre 1–2 LensLigue 1
- 27 April 2025Lens 0–4 AuxerreLigue 1
- 14 December 2024Auxerre 2–2 LensLigue 1
- 3 June 2023Auxerre 1–3 LensLigue 1
- 14 January 2023Lens 1–0 AuxerreLigue 1
A clear gap in the ratings
Lens carry a model rating of 7.14 against 6.55 for Auxerre. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.68 goals for Lens and 0.84 for Auxerre. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lens rate 1.43 in attack and 0.80 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Auxerre rate 0.75 and 1.36.
That points to 83% for over two and a half goals and 56% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-0 (9%), 4-0 (8%), 3-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lens the highest probability at 87%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.68 expected goals for Lens against 0.84 for Auxerre. Lens's attack/defence rating is 1.43/0.8 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.36 for Auxerre.