Estac Troyes
vs
Paris FC
Ligue 1 prediction
The model makes it 62% Estac Troyes, 19% draw, 19% Paris FC — fair odds of 1.61, 5.26 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Estac Troyes 2.51, Paris FC 1.35.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Estac Troyes vs Paris FC
- 21 February 2025Paris FC 1–0 Estac TroyesLigue 2
- 21 October 2024Estac Troyes 0–3 Paris FCLigue 2
- 17 July 2024Estac Troyes 1–2 Paris FCFriendlies Clubs
- 13 April 2024Estac Troyes 1–2 Paris FCLigue 2
- 28 October 2023Paris FC 2–2 Estac TroyesLigue 2
- 21 December 2022Paris FC 1–0 Estac TroyesFriendlies Clubs
The two sides
Estac Troyes carry a model rating of 7.17 against 7.02 for Paris FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.51 goals for Estac Troyes and 1.35 for Paris FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Estac Troyes rate 1.33 in attack and 0.70 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Paris FC rate 1.38 and 1.00.
That points to 74% for over two and a half goals and 68% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 1-1 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Estac Troyes the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.51 expected goals for Estac Troyes against 1.35 for Paris FC. Estac Troyes's attack/defence rating is 1.33/0.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.38/1 for Paris FC.