22 August 2026, 18:45 UTC

Estac Troyes vs Paris FC Ligue 1 prediction & result

Troyes
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Estac Troyes 0-0 Paris FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 24% Estac Troyes, 21% draw, 55% Paris FC — fair odds of 4.17, 4.76 and 1.82.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Paris FC at 55%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Estac Troyes4%Draw90%Paris FC6%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

46'
🔁L. Koleoshoout: M. Simon
🔁Y. Titiout: N. Donkor
55'
Michel Diaz
56'
62'
Otávio
63'
🔁R. Matondoout: M. Lopez
🔁K. Diawaraout: A. Mille
75'
🔁I. Gomisout: A. Phliponeau
76'
79'
🔁L. Sinayokoout: O. Sissoko
81'
🔁P. Pagisout: P. Zabi
🔁R. Ripartout: Y. Kone
86'

Match stats — Estac Troyes vs Paris FC

43%Possession57%
7Shots8
2On target0
5Corners0
0.38xG0.8

Goals against chances

Estac Troyes0 from 0.38 xGabout what the chances were worth
Paris FC0 from 0.80 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Estac Troyes 4-3-3
  • 33P. BeachG
  • 44Y. TitiD
  • 6A. MonfrayD
  • 4J. M. DiazD
  • 3A. OuzenadjiD
  • 11I. GomisM
  • 8M. DiopM
  • 22H. PicardM
  • 10M. IfnaouiF
  • 20R. RipartF
  • 7K. DiawaraF
Substitutes
  • 40H. KonateG
  • 31N. DonkorD
  • 5P. GozziD
  • 26A. PhliponeauM
  • 17A. MilleM
  • 29D. KarimM
  • 37C. BatolaF
  • 39Y. KoneF
  • 36I. SoukounaM
Coach: Stephane Dumont
Paris FC 4-2-3-1
  • 1K. TrappG
  • 17A. CamaraD
  • 42D. CoppolaD
  • 5M. MbowD
  • 6OtavioD
  • 23R. MatondoM
  • 33P. Lees-MelouM
  • 10I. KebbalM
  • 7P. PagisM
  • 15L. KoleoshoM
  • 9L. SinayokoF
Substitutes
  • 16O. NkambadioG
  • 31S. CherguiD
  • 14H. TraoreD
  • 28T. De SmetD
  • 20M. LopezM
  • 8P. ZabiM
  • 4V. MarchettiM
  • 18O. SissokoF
  • 27M. SimonF
Coach: Liam Rosenior

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Estac Troyes10226717-108
3Paris FC106221710+720

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Estac Troyes vs Paris FC

  • 21 February 2025Paris FC 1–0 Estac TroyesLigue 2
  • 21 October 2024Estac Troyes 0–3 Paris FCLigue 2
  • 17 July 2024Estac Troyes 1–2 Paris FCFriendlies Clubs
  • 13 April 2024Estac Troyes 1–2 Paris FCLigue 2
  • 28 October 2023Paris FC 2–2 Estac TroyesLigue 2

The full Estac Troyes vs Paris FC record →

Leading scorers: Estac Troyes and Paris FC

Estac Troyes

No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.

Paris FC

GoalsAssists

  • L. Sinayoko95

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Estac Troyes and Paris FC drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Paris FC at 55% and given a draw 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.38–0.80.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.