Estac Troyes vs Paris FC Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Estac Troyes 0-0 Paris FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 24% Estac Troyes, 21% draw, 55% Paris FC — fair odds of 4.17, 4.76 and 1.82.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Ligue 1 (France) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Paris FC at 55%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Estac Troyes vs Paris FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 33P. BeachG
- 44Y. TitiD
- 6A. MonfrayD
- 4J. M. DiazD
- 3A. OuzenadjiD
- 11I. GomisM
- 8M. DiopM
- 22H. PicardM
- 10M. IfnaouiF
- 20R. RipartF
- 7K. DiawaraF
- 40H. KonateG
- 31N. DonkorD
- 5P. GozziD
- 26A. PhliponeauM
- 17A. MilleM
- 29D. KarimM
- 37C. BatolaF
- 39Y. KoneF
- 36I. SoukounaM
- 1K. TrappG
- 17A. CamaraD
- 42D. CoppolaD
- 5M. MbowD
- 6OtavioD
- 23R. MatondoM
- 33P. Lees-MelouM
- 10I. KebbalM
- 7P. PagisM
- 15L. KoleoshoM
- 9L. SinayokoF
- 16O. NkambadioG
- 31S. CherguiD
- 14H. TraoreD
- 28T. De SmetD
- 20M. LopezM
- 8P. ZabiM
- 4V. MarchettiM
- 18O. SissokoF
- 27M. SimonF
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 8 |
| 3 | Paris FC | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Estac Troyes vs Paris FC
- 21 February 2025Paris FC 1–0 Estac TroyesLigue 2
- 21 October 2024Estac Troyes 0–3 Paris FCLigue 2
- 17 July 2024Estac Troyes 1–2 Paris FCFriendlies Clubs
- 13 April 2024Estac Troyes 1–2 Paris FCLigue 2
- 28 October 2023Paris FC 2–2 Estac TroyesLigue 2
Leading scorers: Estac Troyes and Paris FC
Estac Troyes
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Paris FC
GoalsAssists
- L. Sinayoko95
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Estac Troyes and Paris FC drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Paris FC at 55% and given a draw 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.38–0.80.