Korona Kielce vs Motor Lublin Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Korona Kielce 1-1 Motor Lublin.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Korona Kielce, 25% draw, 26% Motor Lublin — fair odds of 2.04, 4.00 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Korona Kielce at 49%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Korona Kielce vs Motor Lublin
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Xavier DziekońskiG
- 71Wiktor DługoszD
- 23Slobodan RubežićD
- 2Ariel MosórD
- 6Marcel PięczekD
- 35Kamil JakubczykM
- 18Patrik HellebrandM
- 9Stjepan DavidovićM
- 8Martin RemacleM
- 22Morgan FassbenderM
- 14Mariusz StępińskiF
- 10NonoM
- 99Daniel BąkF
- 87Rafał MamlaG
- 12Michał MikielewiczG
- 24Bartłomiej SmolarczykD
- 67Norbert BarczakD
- 44Constantinos SotiriouD
- 11Konrad MatuszewskiD
- 21Konrad CiszekD
- 71Mihai PopaG
- 29Thomas SantosD
- 18Bartosz BereszyńskiD
- 39Marek Kristián BartošD
- 24Filip LubereckiD
- 8Christopher SimonM
- 2Paskal MeyerM
- 7Ivo RodriguesM
- 30Mbaye NdiayeF
- 10Karol CzubakF
- 70Makan AïkoF
- 11Fábio RonaldoM
- 17Kamil LukoszekM
- 6Mateusz ŁęgowskiM
- 23Florian HaxhaM
- 4Tin PlavotićD
- 33Gašper TratnikG
- 5Artem AkatovD
- 13Krystian BrzozowskiD
- 16Franciszek LewandowskiM
Form going into Korona Kielce vs Motor Lublin
Korona Kielce
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Widzew Łódź15 August 2026
- D1-1Legia Warszawa8 August 2026
- L0-2Gornik Zabrze1 August 2026
- L0-1away to Jagiellonia25 July 2026
Motor Lublin
All competitions we cover
- W1-0GKS Katowice16 August 2026
- L1-3away to Pogon Szczecin8 August 2026
- L1-2Jagiellonia31 July 2026
- D2-2away to Widzew Łódź26 July 2026
What these results say
- Korona Kielce conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Korona Kielce failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Korona Kielce had two goals or fewer.
- Motor Lublin scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Motor Lublin failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Motor Lublin conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Korona Kielce | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 18 |
| 10 | Motor Lublin | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Korona Kielce vs Motor Lublin
- 28 February 2026Motor Lublin 2–0 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
- 23 August 2025Korona Kielce 2–0 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
- 9 February 2025Korona Kielce 1–0 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
- 4 August 2024Motor Lublin 1–1 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
- 22 June 2024Korona Kielce 1–1 Motor LublinFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Korona Kielce and Motor Lublin
Korona Kielce
GoalsAssists
- M. Stępiński60
Motor Lublin
GoalsAssists
- K. Czubak70
- M. Ndiaye43
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Korona Kielce and Motor Lublin drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Korona Kielce at 49% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: M. Stepinski 19' for Korona Kielce, K. Czubak 30' for Motor Lublin. On expected goals it finished 0.88–0.68.