Korona Kielce
vs
Motor Lublin
Ekstraklasa prediction
The model makes it 48% Korona Kielce, 25% draw, 27% Motor Lublin — fair odds of 2.08, 4.00 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Korona Kielce 1.71, Motor Lublin 1.22.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Korona Kielce
- D1-1Legia Warszawa8 August 2026
- L0-1away to Jagiellonia25 July 2026
Motor Lublin
- L1-3away to Pogon Szczecin8 August 2026
- L1-2Jagiellonia31 July 2026
- D2-2away to Widzew Łódź26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Korona Kielce | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 1 |
| 16 | Motor Lublin | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Korona Kielce
No league goals recorded yet.
Motor Lublin
- M. Ndiaye1 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Korona Kielce carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.54 for Motor Lublin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Korona Kielce L-D; Motor Lublin D-L-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.71 goals for Korona Kielce and 1.22 for Motor Lublin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Korona Kielce rate 0.60 in attack and 1.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Motor Lublin rate 0.81 and 1.51.
That points to 56% for over two and a half goals and 58% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Korona Kielce the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Korona Kielce against 1.22 for Motor Lublin. Korona Kielce's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.51 for Motor Lublin.