Piast Gliwice
vs
Legia Warszawa
Ekstraklasa prediction
The model makes it 35% Piast Gliwice, 28% draw, 37% Legia Warszawa — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Piast Gliwice 1.30, Legia Warszawa 1.34.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Piast Gliwice
- L0-3away to Lech Poznan9 August 2026
- W4-3Wisla Krakow1 August 2026
- L0-2away to Zaglebie Lubin27 July 2026
Legia Warszawa
- D1-1away to Korona Kielce8 August 2026
- W3-1Zaglebie Lubin2 August 2026
- W1-0away to Pogon Szczecin24 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Piast Gliwice | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 |
| 1 | Legia Warszawa | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Piast Gliwice
No league goals recorded yet.
Legia Warszawa
- Ł. Zjawiński2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Piast Gliwice carry a model rating of 6.61 against 6.79 for Legia Warszawa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Piast Gliwice L-W-L; Legia Warszawa W-W-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.30 goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.34 for Legia Warszawa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Piast Gliwice rate 0.74 in attack and 1.20 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Legia Warszawa rate 0.80 and 0.93.
That points to 49% for over two and a half goals and 54% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Legia Warszawa the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.3 expected goals for Piast Gliwice against 1.34 for Legia Warszawa. Piast Gliwice's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/0.93 for Legia Warszawa.