Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Piast Gliwice 1-1 Legia Warszawa.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Piast Gliwice, 27% draw, 41% Legia Warszawa — fair odds of 3.13, 3.70 and 2.44.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Legia Warszawa at 41%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 75D. GrilG
- 99E. TwumasiD
- 5JuandeD
- 4J. CzerwinskiD
- 3E. FikajD
- 98J. LokiloM
- 31O. LesniakM
- 27J. LabojkoM
- 80H. VallejoM
- 19S. NtamackF
- 11L. SancaF
- 12M. Mendes-DudzinskiG
- 28F. BorowskiD
- 15L. PitanD
- 36J. LewickiD
- 77S. MuchaM
- 17Q. BoisgardM
- 18O. MaziarzM
- 10A. KatsantonisF
- 90I. LimaM
- 89O. HindrichG
- 91K. PiatkowskiD
- 8R. AugustyniakD
- 5R. DezielD
- 6H. ArreiolM
- 22P. WszolekM
- 23M. SevcikM
- 67B. KapustkaM
- 19R. VinagreM
- 79L. ZjawinskiF
- 9R. AdamskiF
- 1I. BrkicG
- 24Z. ArsenicD
- 4D. SzymanskiM
- 13A. RecaD
- 53W. UrbanskiM
- 17M. SzczepaniakM
- 77F. PrzybylkoM
- 11K. ChodynaM
- 7J. KuchtaF
Form going into Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa
Piast Gliwice
All competitions we cover
- L3-4Wieczysta Kraków15 August 2026
- L0-3away to Lech Poznan9 August 2026
- W4-3Wisla Krakow1 August 2026
- L0-2away to Zaglebie Lubin27 July 2026
Legia Warszawa
All competitions we cover
- W5-0Radomiak Radom14 August 2026
- D1-1away to Korona Kielce8 August 2026
- W3-1Zaglebie Lubin2 August 2026
- W1-0away to Pogon Szczecin24 July 2026
What these results say
- Piast Gliwice conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Piast Gliwice failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Piast Gliwice had three goals or more.
- Legia Warszawa went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Legia Warszawa scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Legia Warszawa won 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Piast Gliwice | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 22 |
| 3 | Legia Warszawa | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 25 | 15 | +10 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa
- 14 December 2025Legia Warszawa 0–1 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
- 6 December 2025Piast Gliwice 2–0 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
- 8 February 2025Piast Gliwice 1–0 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
- 18 January 2025Piast Gliwice 0–0 Legia WarszawaFriendlies Clubs
- 4 August 2024Legia Warszawa 1–2 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Piast Gliwice and Legia Warszawa
Piast Gliwice
GoalsAssists
- Hugo Vallejo51
Legia Warszawa
No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 25 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Piast Gliwice and Legia Warszawa drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Legia Warszawa at 41% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: L. Zjawinski 7' for Legia Warszawa, L. Sanca 90' for Piast Gliwice. On expected goals it finished 1.11–0.97.