Nice vs Lorient Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Nice 0-0 Lorient.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Nice, 24% draw, 29% Lorient — fair odds of 2.13, 4.17 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Nice at 47%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Nice vs Lorient
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23Y. DioufG
- 33A. MendyD
- 55Y. NdayishimiyeD
- 35X. Mandza TsiendiD
- 92J. ClaussM
- 39D. CoulibalyM
- 87E. PereiraM
- 26M. BardM
- 7G. HeinF
- 10S. DiopF
- 44Z. DialloF
- 77T. BoulhendiG
- 5M. AbdelmonemD
- 36B. MantsoungaD
- 84H. KoutouneD
- 29N. NgoumouF
- 22I. CamaraM
- 38A. CamaraM
- 21I. JanssonF
- 25M. ChoF
- 38Y. MvogoG
- 20D. SyllaD
- 3M. TalbiD
- 32N. AdjeiD
- 11T. Le BrisM
- 8N. CadiouM
- 62A. AvomM
- 43A. KouassiM
- 33G. BernardeauF
- 17J. MakengoF
- 42M. KoneF
- 21B. KamaraG
- 2A. GeorgenD
- 95I. ToureD
- 77P. KatserisD
- 23D. SemedoM
- 7B. FadigaM
- 72N. MbambaM
- 19S. FayeF
- 15A. TosinF
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nice | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 17 |
| 10 | Lorient | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Nice vs Lorient
- 4 March 2026Lorient 0–0 NiceCoupe de France
- 22 February 2026Nice 3–3 LorientLigue 1
- 30 November 2025Lorient 3–1 NiceLigue 1
- 19 April 2024Nice 3–0 LorientLigue 1
- 20 August 2023Lorient 1–1 NiceLigue 1
Leading scorers: Nice and Lorient
Nice
GoalsAssists
- E. Wahi62
Lorient
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Nice and Lorient drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Nice at 47% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.92–0.87.