22 August 2026, 18:45 UTC

Le Mans vs Stade Brestois 29 Ligue 1 prediction & result

Stade Marie-Marvingt, Le Mans
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Le Mans 2-2 Stade Brestois 29.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Le Mans, 28% draw, 28% Stade Brestois 29 — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Le Mans at 44%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Le Mans4%Draw93%Stade Brestois 293%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

31'
⚽R. Del Castilloassist: K. Doumbia
43'
Ludovic Ajorque
⚽D. Gueyeassist: L. Mafouta
45'
Alexandre Lauray
51'
⚽L. Mafoutaassist: A. Bourabaa
55'
62'
⚽K. Doumbia
🔁A. Laurayout: L. Bretelle
63'
🔁L. Mafoutaout: E. Colas
63'
63'
🔁J. Nongeout: M. Diambou
71'
🔁P. Mboupout: A. Camblan
71'
🔁R. Del Castilloout: M. Balde
🔁D. Gueyeout: W. Harhouz
72'
🔁A. Bourabaaout: B. Brahimi
72'
🔁Y. Larouciout: L. Calodat
81'
89'
🔁K. Doumbiaout: L. C. Laine M.

Match stats — Le Mans vs Stade Brestois 29

51%Possession49%
8Shots13
5On target5
0Corners4
0.69xG1.65

Goals against chances

Le Mans2 from 0.69 xGmore than the chances were worth
Stade Brestois 292 from 1.65 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Le Mans 3-5-2
  • 98N. KocikG
  • 15N. BoisseD
  • 21T. EyoumD
  • 26R. BambaD
  • 18L. BuadesM
  • 11A. BourabaaM
  • 8A. LaurayM
  • 9A. RabillardM
  • 76Y. LarouciM
  • 25D. GueyeF
  • 14L. MafoutaF
Substitutes
  • 1E. HatfoutG
  • 16R. TorrenteD
  • 19D. SidibeD
  • 22L. CalodatD
  • 24M. RobinM
  • 29L. Bretelle
  • 20W. HarhouzF
  • 7B. BrahimiF
  • 28E. ColasF
Coach: Patrick Videira
Stade Brestois 29 4-2-3-1
  • 1E. SelvikG
  • 70K. LalaD
  • 29L. TousartD
  • 71R. Le GuenD
  • 2B. LockoD
  • 13J. ChotardM
  • 7J. NongeM
  • 10R. Del CastilloM
  • 23K. DoumbiaM
  • 9P. MboupM
  • 19L. AjorqueF
Substitutes
  • 49R. CagnonG
  • 34E. Mailly
  • 4G. LlorisD
  • 20L. ZogbeD
  • 33H. MakalouM
  • 6M. DiambouM
  • 11A. CamblanM
  • 17M. BaldeF
  • 32L. C. Laine M.M
Coach: Julien Lachuer

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Le Mans101541219-78
9Stade Brestois 29104331812+615

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Le Mans and Stade Brestois 29

Le Mans

GoalsAssists

  • L. Mafouta41
  • A. Bourabaa32

Stade Brestois 29

GoalsAssists

  • L. Ajorque51
  • K. Doumbia42

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Le Mans and Stade Brestois 29 drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Le Mans at 44% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: R. Del Castillo 31' for Stade Brestois 29, D. Gueye 45' for Le Mans, L. Mafouta 55' for Le Mans, K. Doumbia 62' for Stade Brestois 29. On expected goals it finished 0.69–1.65.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.