Le Mans
vs
Stade Brestois 29
Ligue 1 prediction
The model makes it 66% Le Mans, 23% draw, 11% Stade Brestois 29 — fair odds of 1.52, 4.35 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (17%).
Expected goals: Le Mans 1.72, Stade Brestois 29 0.55.
Both teams to score: 35%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
The two sides
Le Mans carry a model rating of 7.13 against 6.68 for Stade Brestois 29. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.72 goals for Le Mans and 0.55 for Stade Brestois 29. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Le Mans rate 0.94 in attack and 0.59 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Stade Brestois 29 rate 0.66 and 0.97.
That points to 40% for over two and a half goals and 35% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (17%), 2-0 (15%), 0-0 (11%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Le Mans the highest probability at 66%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Le Mans against 0.55 for Stade Brestois 29. Le Mans's attack/defence rating is 0.94/0.59 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/0.97 for Stade Brestois 29.