Toulouse vs Le Havre Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Toulouse 3-2 Le Havre.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Toulouse, 30% draw, 27% Le Havre — fair odds of 2.33, 3.33 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Ligue 1 (France) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Toulouse at 43% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Toulouse vs Le Havre
Line-ups
- 16G. RestesG
- 22R. MessaliD
- 5S. KoumbassaD
- 3M. McKenzieD
- 12C. TapéD
- 8T. JørgensenM
- 14N. SigurM
- 23C. CásseresM
- 37Y. AziziM
- 13J. Russell-RoweF
- 20C. TengstedtF
- 18M. AmougouM
- 15A. DønnumM
- 9S. HidalgoF
- 60M. NifloreG
- 19D. OdoguD
- 11S. OppongF
- 31N. SchmidtM
- 7Julián VignoloF
- 6A. VossahM
- 93G. GallonG
- 23V. SassoD
- 15A. SekoD
- 5A. ToubaD
- 20D. OuziadM
- 26S. EbonogM
- 7A. RichardsonM
- 12E. JelertM
- 38R. FofanaM
- 25M. SamattaM
- 9J. MajaF
- 16A. BodartG
- 44I. BounebM
- 17K. MizutaM
- 78D. MosengoM
- 6J. MwangaM
- 30S. NakamuraF
- 14R. NdiayeM
- 27E. Koffi VinetteF
- 97M. NdiayeD
Form going into Toulouse vs Le Havre
Toulouse
Ligue 1
- D2-2away to Lorient12 September 2026
Le Havre
Ligue 1
- D0-0Angers12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Toulouse | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 10 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Toulouse vs Le Havre
- 15 February 2026Le Havre 2–1 ToulouseLigue 1
- 2 November 2025Toulouse 0–0 Le HavreLigue 1
- 23 February 2025Le Havre 1–4 ToulouseLigue 1
- 15 September 2024Toulouse 2–0 Le HavreLigue 1
- 10 March 2024Le Havre 1–0 ToulouseLigue 1
Leading scorers: Toulouse and Le Havre
Toulouse
GoalsAssists
- C. Tengstedt51
Le Havre
GoalsAssists
- J. Maja30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Toulouse beat Le Havre 3–2. The model had made a win for Toulouse its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Casper Tengstedt (penalty) 49' for Toulouse, Casper Tengstedt 51' for Toulouse, Josh Maja 71' for Le Havre, Thomas Jorgensen 79' for Toulouse, Mbwana Ally Samatta 88' for Le Havre.
How the call on Toulouse v Le Havre has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 47% / 29% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 43% / 30% / 27%: the biggest move is Toulouse's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Toulouse win43%▼ −4
- Draw30%▲ +1
- Le Havre win27%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.