Korona Kielce
vs
Raków Częstochowa
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Korona Kielce 2–1 Raków Częstochowa
The model makes it 45% Korona Kielce, 28% draw, 27% Raków Częstochowa — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Korona Kielce 1.81, Raków Częstochowa 1.11.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Korona Kielce vs Raków Częstochowa
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Korona Kielce wins, grey are draws, red are Raków Częstochowa wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Korona Kielce at 45% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Korona Kielce vs Raków Częstochowa
Korona Kielce
- W2-1away to Slask Wroclaw12 September 2026
- D1-1Wisla Krakow5 September 2026
- W2-0away to Wisla Plock28 August 2026
- D1-1Motor Lublin22 August 2026
- W2-1away to Widzew Łódź15 August 2026
Raków Częstochowa
- W2-1Motor Lublin11 September 2026
- L0-1away to Lech Poznan6 September 2026
- L1-2Gornik Zabrze3 September 2026
- L2-5Jagiellonia30 August 2026
- L1-2away to Cracovia Krakow16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Korona Kielce | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 12 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Korona Kielce vs Raków Częstochowa
- 8 May 2026Raków Częstochowa 2–0 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
- 9 November 2025Korona Kielce 1–4 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
- 17 May 2025Korona Kielce 1–1 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
- 24 November 2024Raków Częstochowa 1–1 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
- 13 March 2024Korona Kielce 0–2 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
- 17 December 2023Raków Częstochowa 1–0 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Korona Kielce and Raków Częstochowa
Korona Kielce
- M. Stępiński4 goals
- M. Faßbender3 goals
Raków Częstochowa
- P. Makuch4 goals
- M. Emreli3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Korona Kielce carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.5 for Raków Częstochowa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.81 goals for Korona Kielce and 1.11 for Raków Częstochowa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Korona Kielce rate 0.75 in attack and 1.24 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Raków Częstochowa rate 0.74 and 1.48.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Korona Kielce a 5.1% chance of the title and Raków Częstochowa 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Korona Kielce the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Korona Kielce against 1.11 for Raków Częstochowa. Korona Kielce's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.48 for Raków Częstochowa.