Korona Kielce vs Raków Częstochowa Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Korona Kielce 3-2 Raków Częstochowa.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Korona Kielce, 27% draw, 28% Raków Częstochowa — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Korona Kielce at 45% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Korona Kielce vs Raków Częstochowa
Line-ups
- 1X. DziekońskiG
- 71W. DługoszD
- 23S. RubežićD
- 2A. MosórD
- 6M. PięczekD
- 30C. MenaM
- 35Kamil JakubczykM
- 32O. LingrM
- 18P. HellebrandM
- 19M. AmeyawM
- 14M. StępińskiF
- 99Daniel BakF
- 67N. BarczakD
- 7D. BłanikM
- 21K. CiszekD
- 9S. DavidoviÄM
- 22M. FaßbenderF
- 86Simon GustafsonM
- 87R. MamlaG
- 10NonoM
- 1K. TrelowskiG
- 3A. BrorssonD
- 25B. RacovițanD
- 4S. SvarnasD
- 20Jean CarlosM
- 6O. RepkaM
- 5M. BulatM
- 21T. PieńkoM
- 80L. Diaby-FadigaF
- 11M. EmreliF
- 9P. MakuchF
- 99Adam BasseF
- 19N. ZätterströmD
- 39I. BrusbergF
- 77D. DebohiD
- 71T. KarićG
- 15O. KwiatkowskiM
- 44B. MirčetićM
- 88A. MolnarM
- 36M. PerovićM
Form going into Korona Kielce vs Raków Częstochowa
Korona Kielce
Ekstraklasa
- L0-2Gornik Zabrze15 September 2026
Raków Częstochowa
Ekstraklasa
- L2-3Zaglebie Lubin15 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Korona Kielce | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 18 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Korona Kielce vs Raków Częstochowa
- 8 May 2026Raków Częstochowa 2–0 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
- 9 November 2025Korona Kielce 1–4 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
- 17 May 2025Korona Kielce 1–1 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
- 24 November 2024Raków Częstochowa 1–1 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
- 13 March 2024Korona Kielce 0–2 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Korona Kielce and Raków Częstochowa
Korona Kielce
GoalsAssists
- M. Stępiński60
Raków Częstochowa
GoalsAssists
- P. Makuch61
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Korona Kielce beat Raków Częstochowa 3–2. The model had made a win for Korona Kielce its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Mariusz Stępiński (penalty) 20' for Korona Kielce, Camilo Mena 33' for Korona Kielce, Lamine Diaby Fadiga 58' for Raków Częstochowa, Mariusz Stępiński (penalty) 62' for Korona Kielce, Bogdan·Mircetic 82' for Raków Częstochowa.
How the call on Korona Kielce v Raków Częstochowa has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 40% / 30% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 45% / 27% / 28%: the biggest move is Korona Kielce's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Korona Kielce win45%▲ +5
- Draw27%▼ −3
- Raków Częstochowa win28%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.