Lyon vs Rennes Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Lyon 4-0 Rennes.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Lyon, 29% draw, 32% Rennes — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Ligue 1 (France) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lyon at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lyon vs Rennes
Line-ups
- 1D. GreifG
- 13Z. AthekameD
- 20F. BacherD
- 19M. NiakhatéD
- 16AbnerD
- 2M. BidstrupM
- 23T. MortonM
- 7E. NuamahM
- 10P. ŠulcM
- 8C. TolissoM
- 17L. OpendaF
- 6T. TessmannM
- 26K. BoudacheF
- 40R. DescampsG
- 21R. KluivertD
- 22Clinton MataD
- 18K. MerahM
- 11Keito NakamuraF
- 99N. NarteyM
- 76M. OuédraogoD
- 30B. SambaG
- 95P. FrankowskiD
- 4C. CresswellD
- 48A. Ait BoudlalD
- 26Q. MerlinD
- 21V. RongierM
- 70A. NordinM
- 28A. ThomassonM
- 45M. CamaraM
- 12Eliezer MayendaM
- 22B. DiaF
- 10L. BlasF
- 65H. Do MarcolinoF
- 16N. LemaîtreG
- 9E. LepaulF
- 18M. NagidaD
- 14B. ReynoldsD
- 24A. RouaultD
- 17S. SzymańskiM
- 11Mousa TamariF
Form going into Lyon vs Rennes
Lyon
Ligue 1
- D0-0away to Paris FC12 September 2026
Rennes
Ligue 1
- W1-0Marseille11 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Lyon | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 14 |
| 2 | Rennes | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lyon vs Rennes
- 3 May 2026Lyon 4–2 RennesLigue 1
- 14 September 2025Rennes 3–1 LyonLigue 1
- 26 April 2025Lyon 4–1 RennesLigue 1
- 18 August 2024Rennes 3–0 LyonLigue 1
- 26 January 2024Lyon 2–3 RennesLigue 1
Leading scorers: Lyon and Rennes
Lyon
GoalsAssists
- E. Nuamah31
Rennes
GoalsAssists
- E. Lepaul70
- S. Szymański31
- B. Dia30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Lyon beat Rennes 4–0. The model had made a win for Lyon its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Ernest Nuamah 7' for Lyon, Ernest Nuamah 30' for Lyon, Zachary Athekame 48' for Lyon, Corentin Tolisso 76' for Lyon.
How the call on Lyon v Rennes has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 46% / 27% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 39% / 29% / 32%: the biggest move is Lyon's chance of winning, down 7 points.
- Lyon win39%▼ −7
- Draw29%▲ +2
- Rennes win32%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.