Le Mans vs Lorient Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Le Mans 2-1 Lorient.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Le Mans, 28% draw, 29% Lorient — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Le Mans at 43% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Le Mans vs Lorient
Line-ups
- 98N. KocikG
- 19D. SidibéD
- 17S. YohouD
- 5H. VoyerD
- 29L. BretelleM
- 26R. BambaM
- 11A. BourabaaM
- 10J. VercruysseM
- 76Y. LarouciM
- 13H. DialloF
- 14L. MafoutaF
- 23D. TraoréM
- 16Raúl TorrenteD
- 9A. RabillardF
- 8A. LaurayM
- 1E. HatfoutG
- 25D. GuèyeF
- 22L. CalodatD
- 7B. BrahimiF
- 15N. BoisséD
- 38Y. MvogoG
- 20D. SyllaD
- 3M. TalbiD
- 32N. AdjeiD
- 77P. KatserisM
- 8N. CadiouM
- 62A. AvomM
- 43K. KouassiM
- 33G. BernardeauM
- 17J. MakengoM
- 18I. BaldéF
- 95S. TouréD
- 55N. ObaretinD
- 11T. Le BrisM
- 30S. KuzmićD
- 42M. KoneF
- 21B. KamaraG
- 10I. JensenF
- 2A. GeorgenD
- 19S. FayeF
Form going into Le Mans vs Lorient
Le Mans
Ligue 1
- D2-2Lens13 September 2026
Lorient
Ligue 1
- D2-2Toulouse12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Le Mans | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 7 |
| 9 | Lorient | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Le Mans vs Lorient
- 4 February 2020Lorient 4–2 Le MansLigue 2
- 23 August 2019Le Mans 1–2 LorientLigue 2
- 13 August 2019Lorient 1–2 Le MansCoupe de la Ligue
- 11 January 2012Le Mans 0–1 LorientCoupe de la Ligue
Leading scorers: Le Mans and Lorient
Le Mans
GoalsAssists
- L. Mafouta41
- A. Bourabaa32
Lorient
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Le Mans beat Lorient 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Le Mans at 43%. The goals: Adil Bourabaa 3' for Le Mans, Habib Diallo 57' for Le Mans, Isak Jensen 78' for Lorient.