Angers vs Estac Troyes Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Angers 2-0 Estac Troyes.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Angers, 28% draw, 25% Estac Troyes — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Ligue 1 (France) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Angers at 47% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Angers vs Estac Troyes
Line-ups
- 1Anthony LopesG
- 2C. ArcusD
- 4O. CamaraD
- 21J. LefortD
- 17J. KaluluD
- 18J. AllevinahM
- 14Y. BelkhdimM
- 8B. van den BoomenM
- 10A. SbaïM
- 19A. El OuazzaniF
- 9P. PeterF
- 26A. BermontM
- 24E. BiumlaM
- 36Bane DiattaM
- 11Djibirin HarounaF
- 93H. BelkeblaM
- 20Marius LouërD
- 27L. Rao-LisoaD
- 7U. SimbakoliF
- 16M. ZingaG
- 33P. BeachG
- 31Noah DonkorD
- 6A. MonfrayD
- 4M. DiazD
- 3A. OuzenadjiD
- 8M. DiopM
- 29D. KarimM
- 17A. MilleM
- 11I. GomisM
- 23T. NkadaM
- 9J. Le DouaronF
- 7K. DiawaraF
- 40H. KonatéG
- 39Y. KoneF
- 2L. MaronnierD
- 22H. PicardM
- 20R. RipartF
- 36I. SoukounaM
- 41Enisio CarneiroD
- 34Lassana SimakhaD
Form going into Angers vs Estac Troyes
Angers
Ligue 1
- D0-0away to Le Havre12 September 2026
Estac Troyes
Ligue 1
- L0-2away to Lille13 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Angers | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 8 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Angers vs Estac Troyes
- 20 April 2024Angers 2–1 Estac TroyesLigue 2
- 16 December 2023Estac Troyes 1–4 AngersLigue 2
- 27 May 2023Angers 2–1 Estac TroyesLigue 1
- 28 August 2022Estac Troyes 3–1 AngersLigue 1
- 23 January 2022Angers 2–1 Estac TroyesLigue 1
The result against the call
Angers beat Estac Troyes 2–0. The model had made a win for Angers its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Prosper Peter 42' for Angers, Amine Sbaï 57' for Angers.
How the call on Angers v Estac Troyes has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 38% / 30% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 47% / 28% / 25%: the biggest move is Angers's chance of winning, up 9 points.
- Angers win47%▲ +9
- Draw28%▼ −2
- Estac Troyes win25%▼ −7
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.