Torreense
vs
Sunderland
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: Torreense 0–1 Sunderland
The model makes it 32% Torreense, 30% draw, 38% Sunderland — fair odds of 3.13, 3.33 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Torreense 1.22, Sunderland 1.43.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Torreense are 12th on 3 points from 1 game; Sunderland are 15th on 3 points from 1 game — UEFA Europa League.
- Torreense have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Leixoes.
- Sunderland are without a win in 3, most recently a 3-5 defeat away to Manchester City.
All Europa League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Torreense vs Sunderland
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sunderland at 38% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Torreense vs Sunderland
Torreense
- W2-1away to Lillestrom17 September 2026
Sunderland
- W1-0AZ Alkmaar16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Torreense | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 15 | Sunderland | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
The two sides
Torreense carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.81 for Sunderland. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.22 goals for Torreense and 1.43 for Sunderland. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Torreense rate 0.72 in attack and 1.24 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sunderland rate 0.95 and 1.02.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Torreense, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sunderland the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Torreense against 1.43 for Sunderland. Torreense's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.95/1.02 for Sunderland.
Season stats
Torreense at home · Sunderland away
League matches only, this season — Torreense in the Segunda Liga, Sunderland in the Premier League. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Torreense 6 in the Segunda Liga, Sunderland 5 in the Premier League.
Torreense score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Sunderland have let in 3 there.
Sunderland score most often in the 31–45 minute window (2 goals); Torreense have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Torreense
- at Ferencvarosi TC22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 26%
- vs Amarante26 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 51%
- at Portimonense31 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 38%
- vs Ararat-Armenia5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 58%
Sunderland
- at Bournemouth18 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 29%
- at Lech Poznan22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 27%
- vs Leeds25 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 33%
- at Coventry31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.