Sparta Praha
vs
Lillestrom
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: Sparta Praha 2–0 Lillestrom
The model makes it 59% Sparta Praha, 24% draw, 17% Lillestrom — fair odds of 1.69, 4.17 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Sparta Praha 2.31, Lillestrom 0.75.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Sparta Praha are 3rd on 3 points from 1 game; Lillestrom are 24th on 0 points from 1 game — UEFA Europa League.
- Sparta Praha have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 3-0 win away to Sigma Olomouc.
- Lillestrom have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Viking.
All Europa League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sparta Praha at 59% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom
Sparta Praha
- W4-1away to Ararat-Armenia16 September 2026
Lillestrom
- L1-2Torreense17 September 2026
- D0-0away to Egnatia Rrogozhinë20 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Sparta Praha | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 24 | Lillestrom | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Sparta Praha and Lillestrom
Sparta Praha
- T. Guddal2 goals
Lillestrom
No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Sparta Praha carry a model rating of 6.95 against 6.55 for Lillestrom. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.31 goals for Sparta Praha and 0.75 for Lillestrom. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sparta Praha rate 1.17 in attack and 0.96 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lillestrom rate 0.64 and 1.19.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sparta Praha the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Sparta Praha against 0.75 for Lillestrom. Sparta Praha's attack/defence rating is 1.17/0.96 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.19 for Lillestrom.
Season stats
Sparta Praha at home · Lillestrom away
League matches only, this season — Sparta Praha in the Czech Liga, Lillestrom in the Eliteserien. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Sparta Praha 9 in the Czech Liga, Lillestrom 21 in the Eliteserien.
Lillestrom score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Sparta Praha have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Sparta Praha
- at Baník Ostrava18 Oct · Czech Ligawin 52%
- at Olympiakos Piraeus22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 29%
- vs Slovácko25 Oct · Czech Ligawin 60%
- at Bohemians 19051 Nov · Czech Ligawin 46%
Lillestrom
- at Sandefjord18 Oct · Eliteserienwin 29%
- vs Real Sociedad22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 28%
- vs Brann25 Oct · Eliteserienwin 34%
- at Start1 Nov · Eliteserienwin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.