Union St. Gilloise
vs
Real Sociedad
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: Union St. Gilloise 2–0 Real Sociedad
The model makes it 57% Union St. Gilloise, 24% draw, 19% Real Sociedad — fair odds of 1.75, 4.17 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Union St. Gilloise 2.37, Real Sociedad 0.90.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Union St. Gilloise are 5th on 3 points from 1 game; Real Sociedad are 22nd on 0 points from 1 game — UEFA Europa League.
- Union St. Gilloise are unbeaten in their last 5 (5 won), most recently a 2-0 win away to Antwerp.
- Real Sociedad have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 3-2 win away to Valencia.
All Europa League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Union St. Gilloise at 57% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad
Union St. Gilloise
- W3-0away to Plzen17 September 2026
Real Sociedad
- L1-2Bournemouth17 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Union St. Gilloise | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 22 | Real Sociedad | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
The two sides
Union St. Gilloise carry a model rating of 7.23 against 6.9 for Real Sociedad. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.37 goals for Union St. Gilloise and 0.90 for Real Sociedad. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Union St. Gilloise rate 1.30 in attack and 0.62 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Real Sociedad rate 1.19 and 1.10.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Union St. Gilloise the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise against 0.90 for Real Sociedad. Union St. Gilloise's attack/defence rating is 1.3/0.62 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.19/1.1 for Real Sociedad.
Season stats
Union St. Gilloise at home · Real Sociedad away
League matches only, this season — Union St. Gilloise in the Jupiler Pro League, Real Sociedad in the La Liga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Union St. Gilloise 7 in the Jupiler Pro League, Real Sociedad 7 in the La Liga.
Union St. Gilloise score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Real Sociedad have let in 4 there.
Real Sociedad score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Union St. Gilloise have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Union St. Gilloise
- vs Hapoel Beer Sheva22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 67%
- vs Cercle Brugge25 Oct · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 62%
- at SK Beveren31 Oct · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 56%
- at Celta Vigo5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 41%
Real Sociedad
- at Malaga18 Oct · La Ligawin 43%
- at Lillestrom22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 44%
- vs Levante25 Oct · La Ligawin 47%
- at Athletic Club1 Nov · La Ligawin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.