Rennes
vs
OFI
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: Rennes 2–1 OFI
The model makes it 55% Rennes, 24% draw, 21% OFI — fair odds of 1.82, 4.17 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Rennes 2.57, OFI 1.17.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Rennes are 18th on 1 point from 1 game; OFI are 9th on 3 points from 1 game — UEFA Europa League.
- Rennes have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 0-4 defeat away to Lyon.
- OFI are unbeaten in their last 3 (3 won), most recently a 2-0 win at home to 1899 Hoffenheim.
All Europa League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Rennes vs OFI
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rennes at 55% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Rennes vs OFI
Rennes
- D0-0away to Sturm Graz16 September 2026
OFI
- W2-01899 Hoffenheim17 September 2026
- W2-0away to CSKA Sofia27 August 2026
- W3-0CSKA Sofia20 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Rennes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | OFI | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Rennes and OFI
Rennes
No league goals yet this season.
OFI
- Aitor Cantalapiedra1 goal
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Rennes carry a model rating of 6.84 against 6.59 for OFI. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.57 goals for Rennes and 1.17 for OFI. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rennes rate 1.10 in attack and 1.14 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; OFI rate 0.84 and 1.41.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour OFI, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rennes the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.57 expected goals for Rennes against 1.17 for OFI. Rennes's attack/defence rating is 1.1/1.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.41 for OFI.
Season stats
Rennes at home · OFI away
League matches only, this season — Rennes in the Ligue 1, OFI in the Super League 1. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Rennes 5 in the Ligue 1, OFI 5 in the Super League 1.
Rennes score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); OFI have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Rennes
- at Paris FC18 Oct · Ligue 1win 24%
- at Juventus22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 18%
- vs Strasbourg25 Oct · Ligue 1win 41%
- at Nice31 Oct · Ligue 1win 40%
OFI
- at Kalamata17 Oct · Super League 1win 36%
- vs Bayer Leverkusen22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 23%
- vs PAOK24 Oct · Super League 1win 23%
- at Panetolikos31 Oct · Super League 1win 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.