Regular Season - 25 · 17 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

ML Vitebsk vs Neman Premier League prediction

Vitebsk CSK, Vitebsk

Our model says: ML Vitebsk 1–0 Neman

The model makes it 50% ML Vitebsk, 28% draw, 22% Neman — fair odds of 2.00, 3.57 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).

Expected goals: ML Vitebsk 1.83, Neman 0.87.

Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.

Model confidence: High.

Published

Key facts

  • ML Vitebsk are 2nd on 44 points from 21 games; Neman are 6th on 37 points from 22 games — Premier League.
  • ML Vitebsk are unbeaten in their last 5 (2 won), most recently a 5-1 win at home to Arsenal Dzerzhinsk.
  • Neman are unbeaten in their last 5 (4 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to FC Isloch Minsk R..
  • Last 5 meetings: ML Vitebsk 2 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 30 May 2026, ended Neman 1–2 ML Vitebsk.

Live win probability

From kick-off
ML Vitebsk50%2.00
Draw28%3.57
Neman22%4.55

These update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.

Model insights: ML Vitebsk vs Neman

49%
Both teams to score
51%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

ML Vitebsk win Draw Neman win
  1. 1–012%
  2. 2–011%
  3. 1–111%
  4. 2–110%
  5. 0–07%
  6. 3–07%
  7. 3–16%

Scores read ML Vitebsk first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 36%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts ML Vitebsk at 50% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 705 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into ML Vitebsk vs Neman

ML Vitebsk

  • W5-1Arsenal Dzerzhinsk18 September 2026
  • D1-1away to FC Dnepr Mogilev13 September 2026
  • D0-0Dinamo Minsk6 September 2026
  • D1-1Belshina2 September 2026
  • W3-1away to Dinamo Brest29 August 2026

Neman

  • W2-1away to FC Isloch Minsk R.19 September 2026
  • W1-0Torpedo Zhodino12 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Belshina6 September 2026
  • W1-0Slavia Mozyr29 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Naftan22 August 2026

What these results say

  • ML Vitebsk went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • ML Vitebsk scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • ML Vitebsk conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Neman went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Neman scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Neman won 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2ML Vitebsk2112814217+2544
6Neman2211472620+637

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: ML Vitebsk vs Neman

  • 30 May 2026Neman 1–2 ML VitebskPremier League
  • 28 February 2026ML Vitebsk 2–2 NemanSuper Cup
  • 20 September 2025Neman 3–1 ML VitebskPremier League
  • 3 May 2025ML Vitebsk 1–0 NemanPremier League
  • 9 February 2024Neman 0–0 ML VitebskFriendlies Clubs

The two sides

ML Vitebsk carry a model rating of 6.47 against 6.26 for Neman. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.83 goals for ML Vitebsk and 0.87 for Neman. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

ML Vitebsk rate 0.69 in attack and 1.47 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Neman rate 0.49 and 1.63.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives ML Vitebsk a 39.2% chance of the title and Neman 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives ML Vitebsk the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.83 expected goals for ML Vitebsk against 0.87 for Neman. ML Vitebsk's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.63 for Neman.

Season stats

ML VitebskNeman
21Matches22
12W 8D 1LRecord11W 4D 7L
42 2.0 a gameGoals scored26 1.2 a game
17 0.8 a gameGoals conceded20 0.9 a game
8 of 21Clean sheets7 of 22
4 of 21Failed to score7 of 22
1 of 2Penalties scored2 of 2
37 1.8 a gameYellow cards27 1.2 a game
1Red cards1
4-3-3 8×Usual shape4-2-3-1 10×

ML Vitebsk at home · Neman away

11Played11
4W 6D 1LRecord5W 3D 3L
17–7Goals for – against13–10
5 of 11Clean sheets3 of 11

League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Premier League matches this season: ML Vitebsk 21, Neman 22.

ML Vitebsk scored 8554712
Neman conceded 525116

ML Vitebsk score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); Neman have let in 6 there.

Neman scored 252449
ML Vitebsk conceded 642213

Neman score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); ML Vitebsk have let in 3 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 3 matches, by difficulty

ML Vitebsk

  • at FC Vitebsk24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 37%
  • vs FC Minsk31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 53%

Neman

  • vs Dinamo Brest24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 37%
  • at Dinamo Minsk31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 22%
  • vs FC Dnepr Mogilev7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 52%

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.