Dinamo Brest
vs
FC Vitebsk
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Dinamo Brest 1–0 FC Vitebsk
The model makes it 46% Dinamo Brest, 29% draw, 25% FC Vitebsk — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Dinamo Brest 1.48, FC Vitebsk 0.95.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Dinamo Brest are 4th on 44 points from 25 games; FC Vitebsk are 6th on 40 points from 25 games — Premier League.
- Dinamo Brest are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-2 draw at home to FC Gomel.
- FC Vitebsk are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Baranovichi.
- Last 6 meetings: Dinamo Brest 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 20 June 2026, ended FC Vitebsk 1–2 Dinamo Brest.
More Belarusian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Dinamo Brest vs FC Vitebsk
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dinamo Brest at 46% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Dinamo Brest vs FC Vitebsk
Dinamo Brest
- D2-2FC Gomel17 October 2026
- W1-0away to Arsenal Dzerzhinsk9 October 2026
- W4-2FC Dnepr Mogilev20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Dinamo Minsk13 September 2026
- W1-0Bate Borisov7 September 2026
FC Vitebsk
- W1-0away to Baranovichi17 October 2026
- D0-0FC Isloch Minsk R.11 October 2026
- W6-0Torpedo Zhodino20 September 2026
- D1-1Belshina12 September 2026
- L0-3away to Slavia Mozyr4 September 2026
What these results say
- Dinamo Brest went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Brest scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Brest won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Dinamo Brest | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 41 | 25 | +16 | 44 |
| 6 | FC Vitebsk | 25 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 29 | 21 | +8 | 40 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Dinamo Brest
Chance to finish in the top four · 53% today
FC Vitebsk
Chance to finish in the top four · 4% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Dinamo Brest vs FC Vitebsk
- 20 June 2026FC Vitebsk 1–2 Dinamo BrestPremier League
- 11 February 2026Dinamo Brest 4–3 FC VitebskFriendlies Clubs
- 17 October 2025Dinamo Brest 2–1 FC VitebskPremier League
- 23 May 2025FC Vitebsk 1–3 Dinamo BrestPremier League
- 24 November 2024FC Vitebsk 2–0 Dinamo BrestPremier League
- 28 June 2024Dinamo Brest 1–1 FC VitebskPremier League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Dinamo Brest carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.29 for FC Vitebsk. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.48 goals for Dinamo Brest and 0.95 for FC Vitebsk. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dinamo Brest rate 0.61 in attack and 1.68 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Vitebsk rate 0.47 and 1.49.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dinamo Brest the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Dinamo Brest against 0.95 for FC Vitebsk. Dinamo Brest's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.49 for FC Vitebsk.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Dinamo Brest at home · FC Vitebsk away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Dinamo Brest 25, FC Vitebsk 25.
Dinamo Brest score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); FC Vitebsk have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Dinamo Brest
- at FC Minsk7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 38%
- vs Naftan21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 73%
- at Slavia Mozyr28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 39%
FC Vitebsk
- vs Dinamo Minsk7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 32%
- at FC Dnepr Mogilev21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 42%
- vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 55%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.