FC Dnepr Mogilev
vs
FC Gomel
Premier League prediction
Our model says: FC Dnepr Mogilev 1–2 FC Gomel
The model makes it 30% FC Dnepr Mogilev, 27% draw, 43% FC Gomel — fair odds of 3.33, 3.70 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: FC Dnepr Mogilev 1.21, FC Gomel 1.58.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to FC Gomel: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- FC Dnepr Mogilev are bottom on 16 points from 24 games; FC Gomel are 7th on 40 points from 25 games — Premier League.
- FC Dnepr Mogilev have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Dinamo Minsk.
- FC Gomel have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Dinamo Brest.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Gomel 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 20 June 2026, ended FC Gomel 2–0 FC Dnepr Mogilev.
More Belarusian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Dnepr Mogilev vs FC Gomel
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Gomel at 43% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Dnepr Mogilev vs FC Gomel
FC Dnepr Mogilev
- L2-3Dinamo Minsk11 October 2026
- L2-4away to Dinamo Brest20 September 2026
- D1-1ML Vitebsk13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Baranovichi6 September 2026
- D0-0FC Isloch Minsk R.30 August 2026
FC Gomel
- D2-2away to Dinamo Brest17 October 2026
- L1-5ML Vitebsk11 October 2026
- W2-0away to Baranovichi20 September 2026
- L1-2away to FC Isloch Minsk R.13 September 2026
- W2-1away to Torpedo Zhodino5 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Dnepr Mogilev did not win any of these 5 matches.
- FC Dnepr Mogilev scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Dnepr Mogilev conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Gomel scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Gomel conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC Gomel had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | FC Dnepr Mogilev | 24 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 22 | 39 | -17 | 16 |
| 7 | FC Gomel | 25 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 36 | 25 | +11 | 40 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 91% today
FC Gomel
Chance to finish in the top four · 7% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: FC Dnepr Mogilev vs FC Gomel
- 20 June 2026FC Gomel 2–0 FC Dnepr MogilevPremier League
- 7 February 2026FC Dnepr Mogilev 1–2 FC GomelFriendlies Clubs
- 20 October 2024FC Gomel 1–1 FC Dnepr MogilevPremier League
- 27 May 2024FC Dnepr Mogilev 0–1 FC GomelPremier League
- 27 January 2024FC Dnepr Mogilev 3–0 FC GomelFriendlies Clubs
- 15 February 2023FC Gomel 1–0 FC Dnepr MogilevFriendlies Clubs
The two sides
FC Dnepr Mogilev carry a model rating of 5.98 against 6.27 for FC Gomel. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.21 goals for FC Dnepr Mogilev and 1.58 for FC Gomel. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Dnepr Mogilev rate 0.42 in attack and 2.39 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Gomel rate 0.55 and 1.77.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Gomel the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for FC Dnepr Mogilev against 1.58 for FC Gomel. FC Dnepr Mogilev's attack/defence rating is 0.42/2.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.77 for FC Gomel.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Dnepr Mogilev at home · FC Gomel away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: FC Dnepr Mogilev 24, FC Gomel 25.
FC Dnepr Mogilev score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); FC Gomel have let in 3 there.
FC Gomel score most often in the 31–45 minute window (9 goals); FC Dnepr Mogilev have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
FC Dnepr Mogilev
- at Neman7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 15%
- vs FC Vitebsk21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 29%
- at FC Minsk28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 20%
FC Gomel
- vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 57%
- vs Bate Borisov21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 55%
- at Neman28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 26%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.