Toronto FC
vs
New England Revolution
Major League Soccer prediction
The model makes it 39% Toronto FC, 25% draw, 36% New England Revolution — fair odds of 2.56, 4.00 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Toronto FC 1.58, New England Revolution 1.53.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Toronto FC carry a model rating of 6.36 against 6.5 for New England Revolution. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Toronto FC L-D-D-L-D; New England Revolution L-D-W-D-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.58 goals for Toronto FC and 1.53 for New England Revolution. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Toronto FC rate 0.58 in attack and 1.54 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; New England Revolution rate 0.71 and 1.44.
That points to 60% for over two and a half goals and 63% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Toronto FC the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Toronto FC against 1.53 for New England Revolution. Toronto FC's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.54 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.44 for New England Revolution.