Atlanta United FC vs New York Red Bulls Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Atlanta United FC 2-1 New York Red Bulls.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Atlanta United FC, 20% draw, 42% New York Red Bulls — fair odds of 2.63, 5.00 and 2.38.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
New York Red Bulls at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atlanta United FC vs New York Red Bulls
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1L. HoyosG
- 47M. EdwardsD
- 55T. JacobD
- 6J. AlonsoD
- 3E. BaezD
- 16A. GillM
- 59A. MiranchukM
- 48C. SanchezM
- 8T. MuyumbaM
- 10M. AlmironM
- 22F. PicaultF
- 42J. HibbertG
- 5S. GregersenD
- 2R. HernandezD
- 23A. TorresM
- 7S. AlzateM
- 20L. BrennanM
- 56I. SuarezM
- 30C. TogashiF
- 19Sergio SantosF
- 34E. HorvathG
- 12D. NealisD
- 2J. CheD
- 14J. BazanD
- 56M. Dos SantosD
- 48R. DonkorM
- 15A. MehmetiM
- 10E. ForsbergM
- 7C. CowellF
- 91M. JimenezF
- 16J. HallF
- 77J. McCarthyG
- 5O. ValenciaD
- 26T. ParkerD
- 3J. Marshall-RuttyD
- 39N. BenedettiM
- 13E. M. Choupo-MotingF
- 17C. HarperF
- 11J. RuvalcabaF
- 37M. SofoF
Form going into Atlanta United FC vs New York Red Bulls
Atlanta United FC
All competitions we cover
- L2-3away to Philadelphia Union1 August 2026
- L1-4away to New England Revolution25 July 2026
- D2-2away to Charlotte23 July 2026
- L0-1away to Nashville SC18 July 2026
New York Red Bulls
All competitions we cover
- W3-2Orlando City SC1 August 2026
- L0-2Charlotte25 July 2026
- L1-3away to Philadelphia Union22 July 2026
What these results say
- Atlanta United FC did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Atlanta United FC conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Atlanta United FC scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Atlanta United FC | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 43 | 60 | -17 | 33 |
| 10 | New York Red Bulls | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 48 | 62 | -14 | 42 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atlanta United FC vs New York Red Bulls
- 11 February 2026Atlanta United FC 3–2 New York Red BullsFriendlies Clubs
- 31 May 2025New York Red Bulls 2–0 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 9 March 2025Atlanta United FC 0–0 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 5 October 2024Atlanta United FC 2–1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 21 September 2024New York Red Bulls 2–2 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 24 June 2023New York Red Bulls 4–0 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
The result against the call
Atlanta United FC beat New York Red Bulls 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for New York Red Bulls at 42% and given a win for Atlanta United FC 38%. The goals: E. Forsberg 6' for New York Red Bulls, T. Muyumba 69' for Atlanta United FC, F. Picault 82' for Atlanta United FC. On expected goals it finished 2.40–1.89.