Toronto FC vs Nashville SC Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Toronto FC 2-1 Nashville SC.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Toronto FC, 30% draw, 30% Nashville SC — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Toronto FC at 40% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Toronto FC vs Nashville SC
Line-ups
- 1L. GavranG
- 38J. GilmanD
- 25W. ZimmermanD
- 13B. KuscevicD
- 22R. LaryeaD
- 11D. EtienneM
- 14A. CoelloM
- 6N. DorschM
- 90L. MorganM
- 20D. SalloiF
- 9J. SargentF
- 23W. YarbroughG
- 19K. FranklinD
- 44R. EdwardsD
- 15N. GomisD
- 3Matheus PereiraD
- 12Z. MonlouisD
- 71M. CimermancicM
- 7T. CorbeanuF
- 17E. AristizabalF
- 99B. SchwakeG
- 27R. Baker-WhitingD
- 5J. MaherD
- 3M. WoledziD
- 2D. LovitzD
- 16M. CorcoranM
- 20E. TagsethM
- 7C. EspinozaM
- 10H. MukhtarM
- 11E. SaadM
- 9S. SurridgeF
- 1J. WillisG
- 31A. NajarD
- 22J. BauerD
- 4J. PalaciosD
- 6B. AcostaM
- 8P. YazbekM
- 37A. QasemF
- 14S. MohammedM
- 19A. MuylM
Form going into Toronto FC vs Nashville SC
Toronto FC
- D4-4Chicago Fire5 September 2026
- D1-1New York City FC29 August 2026
- W2-1away to Inter Miami22 August 2026
- D3-3Charlotte19 August 2026
- W2-1New England Revolution15 August 2026
Nashville SC
- D0-0away to New York City FC4 September 2026
- W4-0FC Cincinnati30 August 2026
- W3-2Columbus Crew23 August 2026
- W1-0away to New York Red Bulls19 August 2026
- W4-1Inter Miami16 August 2026
What these results say
- Toronto FC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Toronto FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Toronto FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Nashville SC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Nashville SC won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Nashville SC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Toronto FC | 28 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 32 |
| 1 | Nashville SC | 28 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 59 | 22 | +37 | 63 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Toronto FC vs Nashville SC
- 9 September 2026Toronto FC 2–1 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
- 20 July 2025Nashville SC 1–0 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- 24 May 2025Toronto FC 1–2 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
- 19 June 2024Toronto FC 1–2 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
- 16 May 2024Nashville SC 2–0 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Toronto FC and Nashville SC
Toronto FC
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 41 league goals as a side.
Nashville SC
GoalsAssists
- S. Surridge161
- H. Mukhtar146
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.