CF Montreal vs Charlotte Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: CF Montreal 1-2 Charlotte.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% CF Montreal, 31% draw, 32% Charlotte — fair odds of 2.70, 3.23 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts CF Montreal at 37% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — CF Montreal vs Charlotte
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1S. BrezaG
- 3B. CeballosD
- 5B. CraigD
- 4B. VeraD
- 13L. PetrassoD
- 22V. LoturiM
- 8M. LongstaffM
- 16W. CarmonaM
- 10A. SanchezM
- 17D. SealyM
- 14D. RiosF
- 31T. GillierG
- 27D. BugajD
- 24E. MoralesD
- 29O. EscobarF
- 6S. PietteM
- 21F. HerbersF
- 23N. StreitM
- 35O. Graham-RoacheF
- 18G. SynchukM
- 1K. KahlinaG
- 14N. ByrneD
- 22H. KesslerD
- 3T. ReamD
- 23D. SchneggD
- 17L. de la TorreM
- 16P. BielM
- 28D. DianiM
- 11L. AbadaF
- 7A. GoodwinF
- 10A. Saint-MaximinF
- 21T. MillerG
- 4A. PrivettD
- 44M. AgyemangD
- 35W. ClearyD
- 13B. BronicoM
- 37R. AlokoF
- 20B. CoulibalyM
- 25T. SmallsF
- 9I. ToklomatiF
Form going into CF Montreal vs Charlotte
CF Montreal
- L0-2away to Philadelphia Union5 September 2026
- L1-7away to Inter Miami29 August 2026
- D2-2Los Angeles Galaxy22 August 2026
- W2-1away to Columbus Crew19 August 2026
- D1-1DC United15 August 2026
Charlotte
- D0-0Houston Dynamo5 September 2026
- W2-0away to Atlanta United FC29 August 2026
- W3-1DC United22 August 2026
- D3-3away to Toronto FC19 August 2026
- W3-1Columbus Crew15 August 2026
What these results say
- CF Montreal conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- CF Montreal failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- CF Montreal scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Charlotte went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Charlotte scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | CF Montreal | 28 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 35 | 56 | -21 | 24 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 50 | 40 | +10 | 46 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: CF Montreal vs Charlotte
- 9 September 2026CF Montreal 1–2 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- 27 September 2025Charlotte 1–4 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
- 12 April 2025CF Montreal 0–1 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- 5 October 2024Charlotte 2–0 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
- 14 September 2024CF Montreal 2–1 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- 15 July 2023CF Montreal 2–0 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: CF Montreal and Charlotte
CF Montreal
GoalsAssists
- P. Owusu156
Charlotte
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 50 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.