CF Pachuca vs Club Tijuana Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: CF Pachuca 2-2 Club Tijuana.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% CF Pachuca, 29% draw, 28% Club Tijuana — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts CF Pachuca at 43% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — CF Pachuca vs Club Tijuana
Line-ups
- 25C. MorenoG
- 14C. SánchezD
- 4Eduardo BauermannD
- 2S. BarretoD
- 15F. VenegasD
- 30S. RodríguezM
- 16C. RiveraM
- 26Alán Ernesto Bautista GutiérrezM
- 7R. PizarroM
- 11O. IdrissiM
- 23S. RondónF
- 31J. EulogioG
- 206Thomas ContrerasM
- 32P. BudibD
- 9A. AlcárazF
- 211C. HernandezF
- 6M. IsaísD
- 221Ulises Natanael Martínez ReynosoD
- 12S. SantosM
- 21N. VallejoF
- 2A. RodríguezG
- 17R. ÁrcigaD
- 12J. PorozoD
- 4Unai BilbaoD
- 6A. GómezD
- 16J. VegaD
- 7Adonis PreciadoM
- 20Á. ZapataM
- 8I. TonaM
- 10G. MoraM
- 9MouradF
- 19D. AbreuF
- 34F. BoyaM
- 202J. GonzálezF
- 11F. GonzálezF
- 29S. HernándezG
- 188A. MagallonD
- 33P. OrtízD
- 31Y. PadillaF
- 26A. PerezM
Form going into CF Pachuca vs Club Tijuana
CF Pachuca
All competitions we cover
- W3-0away to Atlante FC12 September 2026
- W2-0away to FC Juarez5 September 2026
- D1-1Guadalajara Chivas29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Atletico San Luis23 August 2026
- L2-3Puebla18 August 2026
Club Tijuana
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Club Queretaro12 September 2026
- W2-0Pumas UNAM29 August 2026
- L2-5away to Guadalajara Chivas22 August 2026
- W2-1Cruz Azul17 August 2026
- D0-0away to Atletico San Luis1 August 2026
What these results say
- CF Pachuca scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | CF Pachuca | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 22 | 19 | +3 | 16 |
| 7 | Club Tijuana | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 22 | 18 | +4 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: CF Pachuca vs Club Tijuana
- 23 April 2026Club Tijuana 3–1 CF PachucaLiga MX
- 17 August 2025CF Pachuca 0–2 Club TijuanaLiga MX
- 17 March 2025CF Pachuca 4–1 Club TijuanaLiga MX
- 5 October 2024Club Tijuana 2–1 CF PachucaLiga MX
- 4 February 2024CF Pachuca 3–2 Club TijuanaLiga MX
Leading scorers: CF Pachuca and Club Tijuana
CF Pachuca
GoalsAssists
- S. Rondón131
Club Tijuana
GoalsAssists
- G. Mora51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
CF Pachuca and Club Tijuana drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for CF Pachuca at 43% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Gilberto Mora (penalty) 17' for Club Tijuana, Jesus Gomez 42' for Club Tijuana, Salomón Rondón 55' for CF Pachuca, Salomón Rondón 90' for CF Pachuca. Sent off: Benjamín Mora Mendívil (CF Pachuca) 90+1'.
How the call on CF Pachuca v Club Tijuana has moved
First published on 7 Sep at 35% / 29% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 43% / 29% / 28%: the biggest move is CF Pachuca's chance of winning, up 8 points.
- CF Pachuca win43%▲ +8
- Draw29%=
- Club Tijuana win28%▼ −8
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.