CF Pachuca
vs
Club Tijuana
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: CF Pachuca 1–0 Club Tijuana
The model makes it 40% CF Pachuca, 30% draw, 30% Club Tijuana — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: CF Pachuca 1.43, Club Tijuana 1.07.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: CF Pachuca vs Club Tijuana
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are CF Pachuca wins, grey are draws, red are Club Tijuana wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts CF Pachuca at 40% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into CF Pachuca vs Club Tijuana
CF Pachuca
- W3-0away to Atlante FC12 September 2026
- W2-0away to FC Juarez5 September 2026
- D1-1Guadalajara Chivas29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Atletico San Luis23 August 2026
- L2-3Puebla18 August 2026
Club Tijuana
- L0-1Club Queretaro12 September 2026
- W2-0Pumas UNAM29 August 2026
- L2-5away to Guadalajara Chivas23 August 2026
- W2-1Cruz Azul17 August 2026
- D0-0away to Atletico San Luis1 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | CF Pachuca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 11 |
| 7 | Club Tijuana | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: CF Pachuca vs Club Tijuana
- 23 April 2026Club Tijuana 3–1 CF PachucaLiga MX
- 17 August 2025CF Pachuca 0–2 Club TijuanaLiga MX
- 17 March 2025CF Pachuca 4–1 Club TijuanaLiga MX
- 5 October 2024Club Tijuana 2–1 CF PachucaLiga MX
- 4 February 2024CF Pachuca 3–2 Club TijuanaLiga MX
- 11 November 2023Club Tijuana 2–3 CF PachucaLiga MX
Leading scorers: CF Pachuca and Club Tijuana
CF Pachuca
- S. Rondón8 goals
Club Tijuana
- G. Mora4 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
CF Pachuca carry a model rating of 6.66 against 6.66 for Club Tijuana. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.43 goals for CF Pachuca and 1.07 for Club Tijuana. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
CF Pachuca rate 0.78 in attack and 1.15 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Club Tijuana rate 0.77 and 1.13.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Club Tijuana, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives CF Pachuca a 1.1% chance of the title and Club Tijuana 6.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives CF Pachuca the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for CF Pachuca against 1.07 for Club Tijuana. CF Pachuca's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.13 for Club Tijuana.