19 July 2026

Guadalajara Chivas vs Toluca Liga MX prediction & result

Full time0 – 2

Final score: Guadalajara Chivas 0-2 Toluca.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Guadalajara Chivas, 28% draw, 24% Toluca — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Guadalajara Chivas at 48% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

19'
F. Romero
42'
⚽A. Vega (pen)
🔁K. Castanedaout: B. Gutierrez
46'
A. Sepulveda
50'
R. Alvarado
54'
🔁R. Ledezmaout: A. Gonzalez
56'
59'
🔁E. Gutierrezout: Helinho
61'
J. Gallardo
🔁O. Goveaout: J. Carrillo
68'
70'
🔁A. Vegaout: V. Guzman
74'
⚽J. Gallardoassist: Helinho
🔁D. Campillo Del Campoout: R. Marin
86'
🔁D. Aguirreout: M. Gomez
86'
87'
🔁N. Castroout: Bruno Mendez
87'
🔁J. Anguloout: F. Arce
J. Carrillo
90+6'

Match stats — Guadalajara Chivas vs Toluca

40%Possession60%
13Shots15
4On target10
9Corners2
0.96xG1.93

Goals against chances

Guadalajara Chivas0 from 0.96 xGless than the chances were worth
Toluca2 from 1.93 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Guadalajara Chivas 3-1-4-2
  • 1Raúl RangelG
  • 23Daniel AguirreD
  • 7Luis RomoD
  • 3Diego CampilloD
  • 28Fernando GonzálezM
  • 37Richard LedezmaM
  • 6Omar GoveaM
  • 19Kevin CastañedaM
  • 5Bryan GonzálezM
  • 25Roberto AlvaradoF
  • 9Ángel SepúlvedaF
Substitutes
  • 11Brian GutiérrezM
  • 34Armando GonzálezF
  • 33Jordan CarrilloM
  • 17Ricardo MarínF
  • 24Miguel GómezD
  • 13Óscar WhalleyG
  • 4Miguel TapiasD
  • 2José CastilloD
  • 18Jonathan PerezM
Coach: Gabriel Milito
Toluca 4-2-3-1
  • 22Luis GarcíaG
  • 19Santiago SimónD
  • 6Federico PereiraD
  • 25Everardo LópezD
  • 20Jesús GallardoD
  • 5Franco RomeroM
  • 35Érick GutiérrezM
  • 10Jesús Ricardo AnguloM
  • 8Nicolás CastroM
  • 9Alexis VegaM
  • 29Jorge DíazF
Substitutes
  • 11HelinhoF
  • 7Víctor GuzmánM
  • 4Bruno MéndezD
  • 24Fernando Arce JuárezM
  • 1Hugo GonzalezG
  • 2Diego BarbosaD
  • 3Antonio BriseñoD
  • 17Brian GarcíaD
  • 13LuanD
Coach: Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich Antonio

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Guadalajara Chivas147522112+926
5Toluca146532919+1023

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Guadalajara Chivas vs Toluca

  • 28 February 2026Toluca 2–0 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
  • 21 September 2025Guadalajara Chivas 0–3 TolucaLiga MX
  • 16 February 2025Toluca 2–1 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
  • 7 July 2024Guadalajara Chivas 0–0 TolucaLiga MX
  • 12 May 2024Toluca 0–0 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX

The full Guadalajara Chivas vs Toluca record →

Leading scorers: Guadalajara Chivas and Toluca

Guadalajara Chivas

No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.

Toluca

GoalsAssists

  • F. Viñas70

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.