Guadalajara Chivas vs Toluca Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Guadalajara Chivas 0-2 Toluca.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Guadalajara Chivas, 28% draw, 24% Toluca — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Guadalajara Chivas at 48% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Guadalajara Chivas vs Toluca
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Raúl RangelG
- 23Daniel AguirreD
- 7Luis RomoD
- 3Diego CampilloD
- 28Fernando GonzálezM
- 37Richard LedezmaM
- 6Omar GoveaM
- 19Kevin CastañedaM
- 5Bryan GonzálezM
- 25Roberto AlvaradoF
- 9Ángel SepúlvedaF
- 11Brian GutiérrezM
- 34Armando GonzálezF
- 33Jordan CarrilloM
- 17Ricardo MarínF
- 24Miguel GómezD
- 13Óscar WhalleyG
- 4Miguel TapiasD
- 2José CastilloD
- 18Jonathan PerezM
- 22Luis GarcíaG
- 19Santiago SimónD
- 6Federico PereiraD
- 25Everardo LópezD
- 20Jesús GallardoD
- 5Franco RomeroM
- 35Érick GutiérrezM
- 10Jesús Ricardo AnguloM
- 8Nicolás CastroM
- 9Alexis VegaM
- 29Jorge DíazF
- 11HelinhoF
- 7Víctor GuzmánM
- 4Bruno MéndezD
- 24Fernando Arce JuárezM
- 1Hugo GonzalezG
- 2Diego BarbosaD
- 3Antonio BriseñoD
- 17Brian GarcíaD
- 13LuanD
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guadalajara Chivas | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 17 |
| 2 | Toluca | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Guadalajara Chivas vs Toluca
- 19 July 2026Guadalajara Chivas 0–2 TolucaLiga MX
- 28 February 2026Toluca 2–0 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
- 21 September 2025Guadalajara Chivas 0–3 TolucaLiga MX
- 16 February 2025Toluca 2–1 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
- 7 July 2024Guadalajara Chivas 0–0 TolucaLiga MX
- 12 May 2024Toluca 0–0 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
Leading scorers: Guadalajara Chivas and Toluca
Guadalajara Chivas
- R. Alvarado3 goals
Toluca
- F. Viñas3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.