Toluca vs FC Juarez Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Toluca 4-0 FC Juarez.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Toluca, 27% draw, 25% FC Juarez — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Toluca at 48% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Toluca vs FC Juarez
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1H. GonzalezG
- 184S. AcevesD
- 13LuanD
- 6F. PereiraD
- 25E. del VillarD
- 11HelinhoM
- 5F. RomeroM
- 9A. VegaM
- 7V. GuzmanM
- 29J. Diaz PriceF
- 23O. VirgenF
- 12R. BeltranG
- 3A. BrisenoD
- 20J. GallardoD
- 4Bruno MendezD
- 24F. ArceM
- 8N. CastroM
- 192L. NavarreteD
- 16F. VinasF
- 15P. PerezM
- 1S. JuradoG
- 33F. J. Nevarez PulgarinD
- 3J. MurilloD
- 2G. SepulvedaD
- 20J. AquinoD
- 5D. GarciaM
- 13Rodrigo DouradoM
- 10J. M. Torres Ramirez I.M
- 6MonchuM
- 11J. RodriguezM
- 19O. EstupinanF
- 24B. DiazG
- 23H. OrtegaD
- 4A. MayorgaD
- 14E. LopezM
- 7R. FulgencioM
- 16J. SigalaM
- 8Guilherme CastilhoM
- 201J. CarmonaM
- 21RicardinhoM
Form going into Toluca vs FC Juarez
Toluca
- W2-1away to Club Queretaro22 August 2026
- D0-0away to Atlante FC15 August 2026
- W3-1Necaxa3 August 2026
- L1-2Pumas UNAM22 July 2026
- W2-0away to Guadalajara Chivas19 July 2026
FC Juarez
- L1-2Club America22 August 2026
- L1-6away to Monterrey16 August 2026
- L1-5Pumas UNAM1 August 2026
- L0-1away to Guadalajara Chivas25 July 2026
- L0-1Puebla18 July 2026
What these results say
- Toluca scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Juarez did not win any of these 5 matches.
- FC Juarez conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 12 | +11 | 20 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 7 | 25 | -18 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Toluca vs FC Juarez
- 8 March 2026Toluca 3–1 FC JuarezLiga MX
- 30 November 2025Toluca 0–0 FC JuarezLiga MX
- 27 November 2025FC Juarez 1–2 TolucaLiga MX
- 12 August 2025FC Juarez 0–2 TolucaLiga MX
- 22 February 2025FC Juarez 0–4 TolucaLiga MX
- 14 July 2024Toluca 3–2 FC JuarezLiga MX
Leading scorers: Toluca and FC Juarez
Toluca
- A. Vega4 goals2 assists
- F. Viñas4 goals
FC Juarez
- Ó. Estupiñán6 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.