Lecce
vs
AS Roma
Serie A prediction
The model makes it 15% Lecce, 18% draw, 67% AS Roma — fair odds of 6.67, 5.56 and 1.49. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Lecce 1.09, AS Roma 2.48.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Lecce vs AS Roma
- 22 March 2026AS Roma 1–0 LecceSerie A
- 6 January 2026Lecce 0–2 AS RomaSerie A
- 29 March 2025Lecce 0–1 AS RomaSerie A
- 7 December 2024AS Roma 4–1 LecceSerie A
- 1 April 2024Lecce 0–0 AS RomaSerie A
- 5 November 2023AS Roma 2–1 LecceSerie A
A clear gap in the ratings
Lecce carry a model rating of 6.74 against 7.3 for AS Roma. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.09 goals for Lecce and 2.48 for AS Roma. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lecce rate 0.89 in attack and 1.10 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AS Roma rate 1.61 and 0.65.
That points to 69% for over two and a half goals and 61% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (9%), 0-2 (9%), 1-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 446 correct results out of 915 settled predictions (49%), with 86 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AS Roma the highest probability at 67%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Lecce against 2.48 for AS Roma. Lecce's attack/defence rating is 0.89/1.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.61/0.65 for AS Roma.