Monterrey
vs
Atletico San Luis
Liga MX prediction
The model makes it 53% Monterrey, 25% draw, 22% Atletico San Luis — fair odds of 1.89, 4.00 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Monterrey 1.71, Atletico San Luis 1.01.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Monterrey
- W6-1FC Juarez16 August 2026
- W2-0away to Atlas2 August 2026
- L1-2away to Necaxa26 July 2026
- W3-2Santos Laguna19 July 2026
Atletico San Luis
- L0-3away to Club America16 August 2026
- D0-0Club Tijuana1 August 2026
- D2-2away to Tigres UANL26 July 2026
- L2-3Cruz Azul18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Monterrey | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 9 |
| 15 | Atletico San Luis | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Monterrey
- L. Ocampos4 goals1 assists
Atletico San Luis
- Rafa Llorente2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Monterrey carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.51 for Atletico San Luis. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Monterrey W-L-W-W; Atletico San Luis L-D-D-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.71 goals for Monterrey and 1.01 for Atletico San Luis. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Monterrey rate 0.76 in attack and 1.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Atletico San Luis rate 0.58 and 1.19.
That points to 51% for over two and a half goals and 53% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 446 correct results out of 915 settled predictions (49%), with 86 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Monterrey the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Monterrey against 1.01 for Atletico San Luis. Monterrey's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.19 for Atletico San Luis.