Monterrey vs Atletico San Luis Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Monterrey 1-3 Atletico San Luis.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Monterrey, 29% draw, 28% Atletico San Luis — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Monterrey at 43% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Monterrey vs Atletico San Luis
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22L. CardenasG
- 14E. AguirreD
- 30J. RodriguezD
- 13C. SalcedoD
- 21L. ReyesD
- 5F. AmbrizM
- 11I. FimbresM
- 10L. OrellanoM
- 27R. de la RosaM
- 200O. GalvezM
- 32U. DjurdjevicF
- 1E. AndradaG
- 2R. ChavezD
- 19A. AcevesD
- 18C. GarzaM
- 8O. TorresM
- 25O. PinedaM
- 17J. CoronaM
- 9D. RossiM
- 99H. CuypersF
- 1A. SanchezG
- 2R. TorresD
- 3Robson BambuD
- 14M. GarciaD
- 31E. AguilaD
- 17A. DuarteD
- 11D. RodriguezM
- 13J. CaicedoM
- 21O. MaciasM
- 10S. Salles-LamongeM
- 22R. LlorenteF
- 25M. G. LajudG
- 18A. CruzD
- 16Lucas EstevesD
- 30B. GalindoD
- 26S. PerezM
- 5R. MerazM
- 7B. GaldamesM
- 19S. MunozF
- 8R. NajeraM
Form going into Monterrey vs Atletico San Luis
Monterrey
- L0-2away to Leon22 August 2026
Atletico San Luis
- D1-1CF Pachuca23 August 2026
- L0-3away to Club America16 August 2026
- D0-0Club Tijuana1 August 2026
- D2-2away to Tigres UANL26 July 2026
- L2-3Cruz Azul18 July 2026
What these results say
- Atletico San Luis did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Atletico San Luis conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Monterrey | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 13 |
| 13 | Atletico San Luis | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Monterrey vs Atletico San Luis
- 4 April 2026Monterrey 1–2 Atletico San LuisLiga MX
- 19 July 2025Atletico San Luis 0–1 MonterreyLiga MX
- 23 February 2025Monterrey 3–1 Atletico San LuisLiga MX
- 8 December 2024Monterrey 5–1 Atletico San LuisLiga MX
- 5 December 2024Atletico San Luis 2–1 MonterreyLiga MX
- 5 October 2024Atletico San Luis 1–0 MonterreyLiga MX
Leading scorers: Monterrey and Atletico San Luis
Monterrey
- L. Ocampos5 goals1 assist
Atletico San Luis
- D. Rodríguez3 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.