Club America vs Puebla Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Club America 2-0 Puebla.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Club America, 25% draw, 24% Puebla — fair odds of 1.96, 4.00 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Club America at 51% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Club America vs Puebla
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 21F. TapiaG
- 2E. LaraD
- 29R. JuarezD
- 32M. VazquezD
- 34D. EspinozaD
- 6E. CerrilloM
- 27IcaroM
- 186D. ArriagaM
- 20A. H. Gutierrez TorresM
- 22O. PereaM
- 189A. CardenasF
- 30R. CotaG
- 26C. BorjaD
- 5K. AlvarezD
- 3I. ReyesD
- 4S. CaceresD
- 28E. SanchezM
- 23Raphael VeigaM
- 7B. RodriguezF
- 9H. MartinF
- 28D. GutierrezG
- 12I. MorenoD
- 5F. AlmadaD
- 4J. VargasD
- 7F. MonarrezD
- 24A. OrganistaM
- 16A. RamirezM
- 27B. GarnicaM
- 26K. VelascoM
- 22C. BaltazarM
- 29E. MustreF
- 33J. RodriguezG
- 15O. VillaD
- 20J. R. Pachuca MartinezD
- 2A. LeyvaD
- 10M. TomasM
- 3A. HerreraM
- 34Lucas CamiloM
- 21S. SanabriaM
- 9L. HernandezF
Form going into Club America vs Puebla
Club America
- W2-1away to FC Juarez22 August 2026
Puebla
- W3-2Santos Laguna23 August 2026
- W3-2away to CF Pachuca18 August 2026
- D1-1Guadalajara Chivas1 August 2026
- L1-2away to Cruz Azul22 July 2026
- W1-0away to FC Juarez18 July 2026
What these results say
- Puebla scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Puebla conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Puebla.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Club America | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 20 |
| 9 | Puebla | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Club America vs Puebla
- 21 February 2026Puebla 0–4 Club AmericaLiga MX
- 22 October 2025Club America 2–1 PueblaLiga MX
- 8 February 2025Puebla 1–2 Club AmericaLiga MX
- 25 August 2024Club America 0–1 PueblaLiga MX
- 27 April 2024Puebla 1–2 Club AmericaLiga MX
- 16 July 2023Club America 3–0 PueblaLiga MX
Leading scorers: Club America and Puebla
Club America
- H. Martín6 goals2 assists
- M. Borja4 goals
Puebla
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.