Club America
vs
Puebla
Liga MX prediction
The model makes it 79% Club America, 13% draw, 8% Puebla — fair odds of 1.27, 7.69 and 12.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Club America 2.89, Puebla 0.82.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Club America
- W3-0Santos Laguna2 August 2026
- D1-1away to Atlante FC25 July 2026
- W1-0away to Club Queretaro19 July 2026
Puebla
- D1-1Guadalajara Chivas1 August 2026
- L1-2away to Cruz Azul22 July 2026
- W1-0away to FC Juarez18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 7 |
| 11 | Puebla | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
The two sides
Club America carry a model rating of 6.84 against 6.37 for Puebla. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Club America W-D-W; Puebla W-L-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.89 goals for Club America and 0.82 for Puebla. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Club America rate 1.15 in attack and 1.20 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Puebla rate 0.49 and 1.33.
That points to 72% for over two and a half goals and 53% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (10%), 3-0 (10%), 2-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Club America the highest probability at 79%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.89 expected goals for Club America against 0.82 for Puebla. Club America's attack/defence rating is 1.15/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.33 for Puebla.