Udinese
vs
Lecce
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Udinese 1–0 Lecce
The model makes it 44% Udinese, 29% draw, 27% Lecce — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Udinese 1.54, Lecce 0.96.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Udinese are 13th on 4 points from 5 games; Lecce are 12th on 6 points from 5 games — Serie A.
- Udinese are without a win in 3, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Cagliari.
- Lecce have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to AC Milan.
- Last 6 meetings: Udinese 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 8 February 2026, ended Lecce 2–1 Udinese.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Udinese vs Lecce
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Udinese at 44% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Udinese vs Lecce
Udinese
- L0-1Cagliari19 September 2026
- L3-5away to Inter14 September 2026
- L1-2Lazio7 September 2026
- W3-2away to Monza29 August 2026
- D1-1Como22 August 2026
Lecce
- L0-3away to AC Milan20 September 2026
- W3-2Monza13 September 2026
- L0-1away to Cagliari7 September 2026
- L0-4AS Roma31 August 2026
- W2-0away to Venezia23 August 2026
What these results say
- Udinese conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Udinese failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Udinese scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lecce conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Udinese | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 4 |
| 12 | Lecce | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Udinese vs Lecce
- 8 February 2026Lecce 2–1 UdineseSerie A
- 25 October 2025Udinese 3–2 LecceSerie A
- 21 February 2025Lecce 0–1 UdineseSerie A
- 5 October 2024Udinese 1–0 LecceSerie A
- 13 May 2024Lecce 0–2 UdineseSerie A
- 23 October 2023Udinese 1–1 LecceSerie A
Leading scorers: Udinese and Lecce
Udinese
- H. Kamara2 goals1 assist
- J. Ekkelenkamp2 goals1 assist
Lecce
- L. Coulibaly2 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Udinese carry a model rating of 6.86 against 6.68 for Lecce. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.54 goals for Udinese and 0.96 for Lecce. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Udinese rate 1.05 in attack and 1.03 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lecce rate 0.74 and 1.06.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Lecce, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Udinese the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Udinese against 0.96 for Lecce. Udinese's attack/defence rating is 1.05/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.06 for Lecce.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Udinese at home · Lecce away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Udinese 5, Lecce 5.
Udinese score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Lecce have let in 0 there.
Lecce score most often in the 0–15 minute window (2 goals); Udinese have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Udinese
- vs AC Milan25 Oct · Serie Awin 28%
- at Parma28 Oct · Serie Awin 38%
- vs AS Roma31 Oct · Serie Awin 21%
- at Venezia6 Nov · Serie Awin 47%
Lecce
- vs Juventus25 Oct · Serie Awin 20%
- at Frosinone29 Oct · Serie Awin 22%
- vs Genoa1 Nov · Serie Awin 34%
- at Torino7 Nov · Serie Awin 30%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.