Tigre vs Rosario Central Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Tigre 0-1 Rosario Central.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Tigre, 28% draw, 30% Rosario Central — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Liga Profesional Argentina predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Tigre at 42% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Tigre vs Rosario Central
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12F. T. ZenobioG
- 4V. MorenoD
- 20A. BarrionuevoD
- 32J. VillalbaD
- 3N. BanegasD
- 10J. SaraleguiM
- 27S. GonzalezM
- 8M. GarayM
- 22S. LopezM
- 33M. MendezF
- 29I. RussoF
- 26L. MoralesG
- 17G. SotoD
- 23G. RequenaD
- 24F. AlvarezD
- 40L. MinnitiD
- 5B. LeyesM
- 21S. MedinaM
- 11T. SerragoM
- 19A. OviedoF
- 23C. LedesmaG
- 32E. CoronelD
- 46I. OvandoD
- 13G. AvilaD
- 3A. SandezD
- 5F. IbarraM
- 20V. PizarroM
- 88A. RodriguezM
- 11A. Di MariaM
- 8J. CampazM
- 22E. CopettiF
- 1A. WernerG
- 24J. GimenezD
- 33A. SotoD
- 15F. Mallo BlancoD
- 2S. ZarachoD
- 42E. VeronD
- 31F. NavarroM
- 28P. FernandezM
- 10F. CerviM
Form going into Tigre vs Rosario Central
Tigre
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Gimnasia La Plata5 September 2026
- D0-0Barracas Central1 September 2026
- W2-1Central Cordoba de Santiago24 August 2026
- D0-0away to Aldosivi15 August 2026
- W1-0River Plate8 August 2026
Rosario Central
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Newell's Old Boys6 September 2026
- L1-2Gimnasia La Plata29 August 2026
- D2-2away to Talleres Cordoba25 August 2026
- W1-0away to Barracas Central16 August 2026
- W2-1Aldosivi7 August 2026
What these results say
- Rosario Central scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Rosario Central conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Rosario Central.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Tigre | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 13 |
| 1 | Rosario Central | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 11 | +11 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Tigre vs Rosario Central
- 3 May 2026Rosario Central 1–1 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
- 21 May 2024Rosario Central 1–1 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
- 3 February 2023Tigre 2–2 Rosario CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
- 8 August 2022Tigre 3–1 Rosario CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
- 4 April 2022Tigre 2–0 Rosario CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Tigre and Rosario Central
Tigre
GoalsAssists
- I. Russo83
- M. Méndez73
- D. Romero72
Rosario Central
GoalsAssists
- Á. Di María115
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Rosario Central won 1–0 at Tigre. The model had leaned towards a win for Tigre at 42% and given a win for Rosario Central 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: A. Di Maria (penalty) 60' for Rosario Central. Sent off: Emanuel Coronel (Rosario Central) 76'. On expected goals it finished 1.37–2.02.
How the call on Tigre v Rosario Central has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 43% / 29% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 42% / 28% / 30%: the biggest move is Rosario Central's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Tigre win42%▼ −1
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Rosario Central win30%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.