Tigre
vs
Rosario Central
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Tigre 0-1 Rosario Central.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Tigre, 30% draw, 33% Rosario Central — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Tigre 1.35, Rosario Central 1.22.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Tigre vs Rosario Central
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Tigre at 37% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Tigre vs Rosario Central
Tigre
- L1-2away to Gimnasia La Plata5 September 2026
- D0-0Barracas Central1 September 2026
- W2-1Central Cordoba de Santiago24 August 2026
- D0-0away to Aldosivi15 August 2026
- W1-0River Plate8 August 2026
Rosario Central
- D1-1Newell's Old Boys6 September 2026
- L1-2Gimnasia La Plata29 August 2026
- D2-2away to Talleres Cordoba25 August 2026
- W1-0away to Barracas Central16 August 2026
- W2-1Aldosivi7 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Tigre vs Rosario Central
- 3 May 2026Rosario Central 1–1 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
- 21 May 2024Rosario Central 1–1 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
- 3 February 2023Tigre 2–2 Rosario CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
- 8 August 2022Tigre 3–1 Rosario CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
- 4 April 2022Tigre 2–0 Rosario CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
- 17 February 2019Rosario Central 0–2 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Tigre and Rosario Central
Tigre
- I. Russo7 goals3 assists
- D. Romero7 goals2 assists
Rosario Central
- Á. Di María8 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Tigre carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.61 for Rosario Central. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.35 goals for Tigre and 1.22 for Rosario Central. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Tigre rate 0.68 in attack and 1.35 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rosario Central rate 0.75 and 1.22.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Tigre the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Tigre against 1.22 for Rosario Central. Tigre's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.22 for Rosario Central.