Sarmiento Junin vs Belgrano Cordoba Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Sarmiento Junin 1-1 Belgrano Cordoba.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Sarmiento Junin, 29% draw, 27% Belgrano Cordoba — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Liga Profesional Argentina predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sarmiento Junin at 44% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sarmiento Junin vs Belgrano Cordoba
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12T. AyalaG
- 8S. SalleD
- 44R. OrihuelaD
- 2J. InsaurraldeD
- 77N. PasquiniD
- 19J. ContreraM
- 15C. ZabalaM
- 16M. MartinezM
- 21J. MavillaM
- 27J. MarabelF
- 24J. HerreraF
- 1I. ArboledaG
- 20U. GimenezD
- 6G. ArturiaD
- 33G. DiazD
- 29T. SantamariaD
- 23E. GimenezM
- 10J. RenteriaM
- 17A. NadruzM
- 5M. GarciaM
- 25T. CardozoG
- 26A. J. Benitez CabreraD
- 14L. MoralesD
- 17L. LopezD
- 16F. RiccaD
- 20F. VazquezM
- 5S. LongoM
- 24E. RigoniM
- 10L. ZelarayanM
- 8R. Hernandes
- 22N. FernandezF
- 23M. VicentiniG
- 3A. SporleD
- 2A. MaldonadoD
- 4A. Rosso
- 59J. FlandesD
- 37L. GutierrezF
- 19S. Gatti
- 9L. PasseriniF
- 11F. GonzalezM
Form going into Sarmiento Junin vs Belgrano Cordoba
Sarmiento Junin
All competitions we cover
- W2-0away to Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto4 September 2026
- L1-4away to Union Santa Fe28 August 2026
- W2-0Estudiantes La Plata23 August 2026
- W2-0Huracan16 August 2026
- W2-1away to Atletico Tucuman8 August 2026
Belgrano Cordoba
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Huracan4 September 2026
- D0-0away to Atletico Tucuman30 August 2026
- L1-2Defensa Y Justicia23 August 2026
- W2-0Independiente Rivadavia15 August 2026
- W2-0away to Banfield10 August 2026
What these results say
- Sarmiento Junin scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sarmiento Junin won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Belgrano Cordoba scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Belgrano Cordoba had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Sarmiento Junin | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 21 | +1 | 21 |
| 5 | Belgrano Cordoba | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sarmiento Junin vs Belgrano Cordoba
- 3 May 2026Belgrano Cordoba 4–0 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
- 4 August 2024Sarmiento Junin 0–0 Belgrano CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 20 February 2024Belgrano Cordoba 4–1 Sarmiento JuninCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 25 September 2023Sarmiento Junin 0–0 Belgrano CordobaCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 3 April 2023Belgrano Cordoba 0–0 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Sarmiento Junin and Belgrano Cordoba
Sarmiento Junin
GoalsAssists
- J. Marabel145
Belgrano Cordoba
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sarmiento Junin and Belgrano Cordoba drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Sarmiento Junin at 44% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: J. Marabel 33' for Sarmiento Junin, L. Passerini (penalty) 90' for Belgrano Cordoba. On expected goals it finished 1.53–2.18.
How the call on Sarmiento Junin v Belgrano Cordoba has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 42% / 29% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 44% / 29% / 27%: the biggest move is Sarmiento Junin's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Sarmiento Junin win44%▲ +2
- Draw29%=
- Belgrano Cordoba win27%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.