Sarmiento Junin
vs
Belgrano Cordoba
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Sarmiento Junin 1-1 Belgrano Cordoba.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Sarmiento Junin, 28% draw, 27% Belgrano Cordoba — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Sarmiento Junin 1.73, Belgrano Cordoba 1.06.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Sarmiento Junin vs Belgrano Cordoba
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sarmiento Junin at 45% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sarmiento Junin vs Belgrano Cordoba
Sarmiento Junin
- W2-0away to Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto4 September 2026
- L1-4away to Union Santa Fe28 August 2026
- W2-0Estudiantes La Plata23 August 2026
- W2-0Huracan16 August 2026
- W2-1away to Atletico Tucuman8 August 2026
Belgrano Cordoba
- D1-1Huracan4 September 2026
- D0-0away to Atletico Tucuman30 August 2026
- L1-2Defensa Y Justicia23 August 2026
- W2-0Independiente Rivadavia15 August 2026
- W2-0away to Banfield10 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Sarmiento Junin vs Belgrano Cordoba
- 3 May 2026Belgrano Cordoba 4–0 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
- 4 August 2024Sarmiento Junin 0–0 Belgrano CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 20 February 2024Belgrano Cordoba 4–1 Sarmiento JuninCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 25 September 2023Sarmiento Junin 0–0 Belgrano CordobaCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 3 April 2023Belgrano Cordoba 0–0 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
- 20 November 2016Belgrano Cordoba 1–2 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Sarmiento Junin and Belgrano Cordoba
Sarmiento Junin
- J. Marabel12 goals4 assists
Belgrano Cordoba
No leading scorers listed yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sarmiento Junin carry a model rating of 6.73 against 6.63 for Belgrano Cordoba. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.73 goals for Sarmiento Junin and 1.06 for Belgrano Cordoba. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sarmiento Junin rate 0.87 in attack and 1.11 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Belgrano Cordoba rate 0.79 and 1.22.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sarmiento Junin the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Sarmiento Junin against 1.06 for Belgrano Cordoba. Sarmiento Junin's attack/defence rating is 0.87/1.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.22 for Belgrano Cordoba.