Regular Season - 21 · 13 September 2026, 12:00 UTC

IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF Allsvenskan prediction & result

Borås Arena, Boras
Full time1 – 0

Final score: IF Elfsborg 1-0 Kalmar FF.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% IF Elfsborg, 32% draw, 21% Kalmar FF — fair odds of 2.13, 3.13 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (20%).

Expected goals: IF Elfsborg 1.34, Kalmar FF 0.54.

Both teams to score: 31%. Over 2.5 goals: 29%, under 2.5: 71%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

Model insights: IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF

31%
Both teams to score
29%
Over 2.5 goals
71%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-0 20%0-0 16%2-0 14%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts IF Elfsborg at 47% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

IF Elfsborg98%Draw2%Kalmar FF0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

26'
Marius Soderback
⚽Momoh Ibrahim Kamaraassist: Leo Hakan Ostman
51'
57'
🔁Malcolm Stoltout: Eskild Dall
57'
🔁Abdussalam Magashyout: Nassef Chourak
🔁Arbër Zeneliout: Ari Sigurpalsson
69'
69'
🔁Tobias Lauritsenout: Melker Hallberg
69'
🔁Marius Soderbackout: Noah Shamoun
🔁Simon Olssonout: Ossian nordvall
78'
🔁Momoh Ibrahim Kamaraout: Per Frick
88'
🔁Julius Beckout: Viggo Elfstrom
88'
88'
🔁Victor Larssonout: Alexander Almqvist

Match stats — IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF

49%Possession51%
12Shots16
5On target3
3Corners6

Line-ups

IF Elfsborg 4-2-3-1
  • 31I. PetterssonG
  • 16A. JensenD
  • 6R. WikströmD
  • 4T. IsherwoodD
  • 23N. HultD
  • 18J. MagnússonM
  • 10S. OlssonM
  • 29M. KamaraM
  • 19J. BeckM
  • 9A. ZeneliM
  • 21L. ÖstmanF
Substitutes
  • 25A. SigurpálssonF
  • 3J. EsengaD
  • 17P. FrickF
  • 14G. GunnarssonF
  • 22D. KrasniqiF
  • 5O. NordvallM
  • 12T. SanderG
  • 27Oladimeji Oluwatimilehin AbdulmuizM
  • 2Viggo ElfstromD
Coach: Björn Hamberg
Kalmar FF 4-4-2
  • 1S. BrolinG
  • 26M. YlitolvaD
  • 4J. LöfgrenD
  • 47A. KeitaD
  • 2V. LarssonD
  • 10M. SöderbäckM
  • 22T. LauritsenM
  • 17C. GustafssonM
  • 24C. SagoeM
  • 21A. MagashyF
  • 9M. StoltF
Substitutes
  • 25N. ShamounM
  • 39L. SætraD
  • 5M. HallbergM
  • 19E. DallF
  • 7N. ChourakM
  • 32C. AnderssonG
  • 20A. AlmqvistD
Coach: T. Koskela

Form going into IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF

IF Elfsborg

  • L1-2away to IF Brommapojkarna6 September 2026
  • W2-0Degerfors IF29 August 2026
  • D1-1away to IFK Goteborg23 August 2026
  • W3-0Vasteras SK FK14 August 2026

Kalmar FF

  • L0-1Djurgardens IF7 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Halmstad29 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Vasteras SK FK23 August 2026
  • L0-4Hammarby FF16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Allsvenskan table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4IF Elfsborg219752921+834
13Kalmar FF2154122131-1019

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF

  • 27 April 2026Kalmar FF 2–1 IF ElfsborgAllsvenskan
  • 29 September 2024Kalmar FF 1–3 IF ElfsborgAllsvenskan
  • 22 April 2024IF Elfsborg 1–2 Kalmar FFAllsvenskan
  • 17 September 2023IF Elfsborg 0–3 Kalmar FFAllsvenskan
  • 9 July 2023Kalmar FF 0–4 IF ElfsborgAllsvenskan
  • 9 October 2022IF Elfsborg 0–2 Kalmar FFAllsvenskan

Leading scorers: IF Elfsborg and Kalmar FF

IF Elfsborg

  • L. Östman6 goals1 assists

Kalmar FF

  • C. Rosenquist7 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.34 goals for IF Elfsborg and 0.54 for Kalmar FF; the game produced 1 and 0.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Momoh Ibrahim Kamara 51' (IF Elfsborg).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives IF Elfsborg the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.34 expected goals for IF Elfsborg against 0.54 for Kalmar FF. IF Elfsborg's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.41/1.52 for Kalmar FF.