Tigre vs River Plate Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Tigre 1-0 River Plate.
Before kick-off the model made it 22% Tigre, 25% draw, 53% River Plate — fair odds of 4.55, 4.00 and 1.89.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
River Plate at 53%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Tigre vs River Plate
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12F. T. ZenobioG
- 4V. MorenoD
- 2J. LasoD
- 20A. BarrionuevoD
- 3N. BanegasD
- 10J. SaraleguiM
- 8M. GarayM
- 30J. EliasM
- 22S. LopezM
- 28P. MartinezF
- 29I. RussoF
- 26L. MoralesG
- 19A. OviedoF
- 17G. SotoD
- 32J. VillalbaD
- 23G. RequenaD
- 24F. AlvarezD
- 21S. MedinaM
- 25I. SubiabreF
- 11T. SerragoM
- 41S. BeltranG
- 29G. MontielD
- 30N. OtamendiD
- 28L. Martinez QuartaD
- 3F. OrtegaD
- 6A. MorenoM
- 50T. AndradaM
- 35J. FreitasM
- 10A. CorreaM
- 26T. GalvanM
- 18L. BeltranF
- 33E. CenturionG
- 20G. GonzalezD
- 24J. MezaM
- 19R. BorreF
- 15Fausto VeraM
- 43V. LuceroM
- 13L. RiveroD
- 31F. GonzalezD
- 25L. PereyraM
Form going into Tigre vs River Plate
Tigre
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Belgrano Cordoba6 August 2026
- W3-1away to Racing Club1 August 2026
- L0-1away to Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto25 July 2026
River Plate
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Rosario Central2 August 2026
- L0-1away to Gimnasia La Plata29 July 2026
- L0-1Barracas Central25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Tigre | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 19 |
| 4 | River Plate | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 21 | 14 | +7 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Tigre vs River Plate
- 7 February 2026River Plate 1–4 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
- 2 June 2024River Plate 3–1 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
- 18 February 2023Tigre 0–1 River PlateLiga Profesional Argentina
- 27 August 2022Tigre 1–1 River PlateLiga Profesional Argentina
- 12 May 2022River Plate 1–2 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
- 7 April 2019River Plate 2–3 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Tigre and River Plate
Tigre
GoalsAssists
- I. Russo83
- M. Méndez73
- D. Romero72
River Plate
GoalsAssists
- T. Galván74
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Tigre beat River Plate 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for River Plate at 53% and given a win for Tigre 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goal: I. Russo 78' for Tigre. On expected goals it finished 0.62–0.38.