Tigre
vs
River Plate
The model makes it 22% Tigre, 25% draw, 53% River Plate — fair odds of 4.55, 4.00 and 1.89. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Tigre 1.02, River Plate 1.72.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Tigre vs River Plate
- 7 February 2026River Plate 1–4 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
- 2 June 2024River Plate 3–1 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
- 18 February 2023Tigre 0–1 River PlateLiga Profesional Argentina
- 27 August 2022Tigre 1–1 River PlateLiga Profesional Argentina
- 12 May 2022River Plate 1–2 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
- 7 April 2019River Plate 2–3 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers
Tigre
- D. Romero7 goals2 assists
River Plate
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Tigre carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.88 for River Plate. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Tigre D-L-D-L-W; River Plate W-L-L-L-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.02 goals for Tigre and 1.72 for River Plate. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Tigre rate 0.55 in attack and 1.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; River Plate rate 1.05 and 0.98.
That points to 52% for over two and a half goals and 53% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 207 correct results out of 443 settled predictions (47%), with 42 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives River Plate the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Tigre against 1.72 for River Plate. Tigre's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.05/0.98 for River Plate.