Boca Juniors vs Velez Sarsfield Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Boca Juniors 1-1 Velez Sarsfield.
Before kick-off the model made it 62% Boca Juniors, 19% draw, 19% Velez Sarsfield — fair odds of 1.61, 5.26 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Boca Juniors at 62%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Boca Juniors vs Velez Sarsfield
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1A. MonteroG
- 17L. LozanoD
- 2L. Di LolloD
- 32A. CostaD
- 3L. BlancoD
- 25S. AscacibarM
- 5L. ParedesM
- 18M. DelgadoM
- 19L. FloresF
- 16Miguel MerentielF
- 10T. ArandaF
- 12L. BreyG
- 11Angel RomeroF
- 21K. ZenonM
- 4J. FigalD
- 22S. VillaF
- 9M. GimenezF
- 27M. BraidaM
- 15W. H. Alarcon CepedaM
- 20A. VelascoM
- 1T. MarchioriG
- 4J. GarciaD
- 32T. SilveroD
- 2E. MammanaD
- 3E. GomezD
- 29R. AliendroM
- 8L. RobertoneM
- 11M. PellegriniM
- 10D. ValdesM
- 22M. LanziniM
- 15D. GodoyF
- 25F. VillalbaG
- 34A. BussoG
- 16L. MagallanD
- 5C. BaezaM
- 17A. VeronF
- 19L. CristaldoD
- 18S. EscobarD
- 47A. PereyraD
- 48L. FelerM
Form going into Boca Juniors vs Velez Sarsfield
Boca Juniors
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Estudiantes La Plata5 August 2026
- D2-2away to Newell's Old Boys2 August 2026
- L0-3away to Deportivo Riestra26 July 2026
Velez Sarsfield
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Independiente3 August 2026
- W3-1away to Talleres Cordoba30 July 2026
- W1-0Instituto Cordoba24 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 24 | 14 | +10 | 33 |
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 25 | 17 | +8 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Boca Juniors vs Velez Sarsfield
- 9 February 2026Velez Sarsfield 2–1 Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
- 28 November 2024Boca Juniors 3–4 Velez SarsfieldCopa Argentina
- 14 June 2024Boca Juniors 1–0 Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
- 26 February 2023Velez Sarsfield 1–2 Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
- 2 October 2022Boca Juniors 1–0 Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
- 10 April 2022Velez Sarsfield 0–0 Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Boca Juniors and Velez Sarsfield
Boca Juniors
GoalsAssists
- M. Merentiel92
Velez Sarsfield
GoalsAssists
- R. Martínez132
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Boca Juniors and Velez Sarsfield drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Boca Juniors at 62% and given a draw 19%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: D. Valdes 12' for Velez Sarsfield, S. Ascacibar 39' for Boca Juniors. On expected goals it finished 1.95–0.72.