Liga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 4 · 8 August 2026, 00:45 UTC

Independiente Rivadavia vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

Estadio Juan Bautista Gargantini, Mendoza

The model makes it 88% Independiente Rivadavia, 8% draw, 4% Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto — fair odds of 1.14, 12.50 and 25.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (9%).

Expected goals: Independiente Rivadavia 3.73, Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 0.82.

Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 83%, under 2.5: 17%.

Model confidence: High.

Model insights

55%
Both teams to score
83%
Over 2.5 goals
17%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines3-0 9%4-0 9%3-1 8%

Head-to-head: Independiente Rivadavia vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

  • 10 February 2026Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 0–1 Independiente RivadaviaLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 18 September 2022Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 4–1 Independiente RivadaviaPrimera Nacional
  • 22 February 2020Independiente Rivadavia 0–0 Estudiantes de Rio CuartoPrimera Nacional
  • 1 September 2019Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 3–1 Independiente RivadaviaPrimera Nacional

Leading scorers

Independiente Rivadavia

  • F. Sartori7 goals

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

No league goals recorded yet.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

A clear gap in the ratings

Independiente Rivadavia carry a model rating of 6.92 against 6.3 for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

Recent form (most recent last): Independiente Rivadavia D-L-D-W-L; Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto L-L-W-L-D.

The model expects goals

Under the hood the model expects 3.73 goals for Independiente Rivadavia and 0.82 for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Independiente Rivadavia rate 1.24 in attack and 1.11 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto rate 0.53 and 1.59.

That points to 83% for over two and a half goals and 55% for both teams to score.

The three most likely scorelines are 3-0 (9%), 4-0 (9%), 3-1 (8%).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 207 correct results out of 443 settled predictions (47%), with 42 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Independiente Rivadavia the highest probability at 88%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.73 expected goals for Independiente Rivadavia against 0.82 for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto. Independiente Rivadavia's attack/defence rating is 1.24/1.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.59 for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto.