Teplice
vs
Sigma Olomouc
Czech Liga prediction
Our model says: Teplice 2–1 Sigma Olomouc
The model makes it 40% Teplice, 28% draw, 32% Sigma Olomouc — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Teplice 1.71, Sigma Olomouc 1.41.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Teplice at 40% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 1330 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc
Teplice
- W2-0away to Hradec Králové20 September 2026
- L0-2Slavia Praha13 September 2026
- W3-1away to Zlin6 September 2026
- W2-0FK Jablonec30 August 2026
- L0-2Zbrojovka Brno23 August 2026
Sigma Olomouc
- L0-3Sparta Praha20 September 2026
- W3-2away to Plzen13 September 2026
- W3-0Bohemians 19055 September 2026
- L0-1away to Baník Ostrava29 August 2026
- W3-1Pardubice23 August 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for Teplice had two goals or fewer.
- Sigma Olomouc conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sigma Olomouc had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Teplice | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 16 |
| 4 | Sigma Olomouc | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc
- 22 February 2026Teplice 1–3 Sigma OlomoucCzech Liga
- 20 September 2025Sigma Olomouc 0–0 TepliceCzech Liga
- 30 November 2024Teplice 1–0 Sigma OlomoucCzech Liga
- 3 August 2024Sigma Olomouc 2–1 TepliceCzech Liga
- 21 February 2024Teplice 2–0 Sigma OlomoucCzech Liga
- 13 August 2023Sigma Olomouc 2–1 TepliceCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Teplice and Sigma Olomouc
Teplice
- John Auta4 goals
- M. Pulkrab3 goals1 assists
- L. Mareček3 goals1 assists
Sigma Olomouc
- V. Sejk3 goals2 assists
- A. Ghali3 goals1 assists
- P. Baráth3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Teplice carry a model rating of 6.68 against 6.68 for Sigma Olomouc. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.71 goals for Teplice and 1.41 for Sigma Olomouc. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Teplice rate 0.88 in attack and 1.23 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sigma Olomouc rate 0.90 and 1.28.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sigma Olomouc, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Teplice a 3.7% chance of the title and Sigma Olomouc 0.7%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Teplice the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Teplice against 1.41 for Sigma Olomouc. Teplice's attack/defence rating is 0.88/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.9/1.28 for Sigma Olomouc.