Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc Czech Liga prediction & result
Final score: Teplice 1-1 Sigma Olomouc.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Teplice, 26% draw, 32% Sigma Olomouc — fair odds of 2.38, 3.85 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Teplice at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 29Matouš TrmalG
- 6Michal BílekD
- 4Oskars VientiessD
- 28Dalibor VečerkaD
- 25Matej RizničD
- 8Jan FortelnýM
- 23Lukáš MarečekM
- 35Matej RadostaM
- 17John AutaF
- 33Tomas ZlatohlavekF
- 12Marcel ČermákF
- 3Josef ŠvandaM
- 11Matyáš KozákF
- 37Daniel MarečekM
- 21Idris HopiF
- 19Robert JuklM
- 31Krystof LichtenbergG
- 5Jakub JakubkoD
- 15Jaroslav HarustakD
- 22Laco TakacsD
- 91Jan KoutnýG
- 2Abdoulaye SyllaD
- 33Matúš MalýD
- 3Louis LurvinkD
- 70Abubakar GhaliM
- 14Marko SoldoM
- 7Michal BeranM
- 4Léo BorgesM
- 39Dominik JanošekF
- 10Václav SejkF
- 24David TkáčF
- 22Matěj HadašD
- 5Tomáš HukD
- 9Jan KlimentF
- 98Matúš HruškaG
- 16Filip SlavíčekD
- 6Jáchym ŠípM
- 8Jiří SpáčilM
- 11Hilmir Rafn MikaelssonF
- 17John Paul DembeF
Form going into Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc
Teplice
All competitions we cover
- W2-0away to Hradec Králové20 September 2026
- L0-2Slavia Praha13 September 2026
- W3-1away to Zlin6 September 2026
- W2-0FK Jablonec30 August 2026
- L0-2Zbrojovka Brno23 August 2026
Sigma Olomouc
All competitions we cover
- L0-3Sparta Praha20 September 2026
- W3-2away to Plzen13 September 2026
- W3-0Bohemians 19055 September 2026
- L0-1away to Baník Ostrava29 August 2026
- W3-1Pardubice23 August 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for Teplice had two goals or fewer.
- Sigma Olomouc conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sigma Olomouc had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Teplice | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 22 | 0 | 21 |
| 5 | Sigma Olomouc | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 20 | +2 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc
- 22 February 2026Teplice 1–3 Sigma OlomoucCzech Liga
- 20 September 2025Sigma Olomouc 0–0 TepliceCzech Liga
- 30 November 2024Teplice 1–0 Sigma OlomoucCzech Liga
- 3 August 2024Sigma Olomouc 2–1 TepliceCzech Liga
- 21 February 2024Teplice 2–0 Sigma OlomoucCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Teplice and Sigma Olomouc
Teplice
GoalsAssists
- M. Pulkrab43
- John Auta40
Sigma Olomouc
GoalsAssists
- V. Sejk63
- A. Ghali42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Teplice and Sigma Olomouc drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Teplice at 42% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Abubakar Ghali 3' for Sigma Olomouc, Idris Hopi 70' for Teplice. Sent off: Louis Lurvink (Sigma Olomouc) 40'. On expected goals it finished 2.12–1.14.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Teplice a 35.7% chance to finish in the top four: 43.2% after a win, 32.7% after a draw, 26.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 32.7%, 3 points lower than before the match.
For Sigma Olomouc the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 27.5% going in: 35.4% after a win, 27.1% after a draw, 21.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 27.1%.
Read from our Czech Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Teplice v Sigma Olomouc has moved
First published on 27 Sep at 40% / 28% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 42% / 26% / 32%: the biggest move is Teplice's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Teplice win42%▲ +2
- Draw26%▼ −2
- Sigma Olomouc win32%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.