Bohemians 1905
vs
Mlada Boleslav
Czech Liga prediction
Our model says: Bohemians 1905 0–1 Mlada Boleslav
The model makes it 33% Bohemians 1905, 30% draw, 37% Mlada Boleslav — fair odds of 3.03, 3.33 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Bohemians 1905 1.20, Mlada Boleslav 1.33.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Bohemians 1905 are 12th on 9 points from 8 games; Mlada Boleslav are 3rd on 17 points from 8 games — Czech Liga.
- Bohemians 1905 have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Pardubice.
- Mlada Boleslav have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Zbrojovka Brno.
- Last 6 meetings: Bohemians 1905 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 31 January 2026, ended Mlada Boleslav 2–2 Bohemians 1905.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mlada Boleslav at 37% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav
Bohemians 1905
- L1-2away to Pardubice19 September 2026
- W2-0Slovácko12 September 2026
- L0-3away to Sigma Olomouc5 September 2026
- D1-1FK Jablonec2 September 2026
- D2-2away to Slavia Praha22 August 2026
Mlada Boleslav
- W2-0Zbrojovka Brno19 September 2026
- L0-3away to Slovan Liberec12 September 2026
- W4-0Baník Ostrava6 September 2026
- W2-1Slovácko22 August 2026
- D1-1away to Pardubice15 August 2026
What these results say
- Bohemians 1905 failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bohemians 1905 scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bohemians 1905 conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Mlada Boleslav scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Bohemians 1905 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 9 |
| 3 | Mlada Boleslav | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav
- 31 January 2026Mlada Boleslav 2–2 Bohemians 1905Czech Liga
- 5 November 2025Bohemians 1905 0–0 Mlada BoleslavCup
- 22 October 2025Bohemians 1905 1–1 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
- 15 March 2025Mlada Boleslav 1–2 Bohemians 1905Czech Liga
- 26 February 2025Mlada Boleslav 0–2 Bohemians 1905Cup
- 20 October 2024Bohemians 1905 2–2 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav
Bohemians 1905
No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Mlada Boleslav
- M. Šubert6 goals1 assist
- J. Klíma4 goals1 assist
- S. John3 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Bohemians 1905 carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.73 for Mlada Boleslav. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.20 goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.33 for Mlada Boleslav. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bohemians 1905 rate 0.67 in attack and 1.13 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Mlada Boleslav rate 0.92 and 1.18.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bohemians 1905 a 0% chance of the title and Mlada Boleslav 1.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mlada Boleslav the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 against 1.33 for Mlada Boleslav. Bohemians 1905's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/1.18 for Mlada Boleslav.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Bohemians 1905 at home · Mlada Boleslav away
League matches only, Czech Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Czech Liga matches this season: Bohemians 1905 8, Mlada Boleslav 8.
Bohemians 1905 score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); Mlada Boleslav have let in 1 there.
Mlada Boleslav score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Bohemians 1905 have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Bohemians 1905
- at Artis17 Oct · Czech Ligawin 43%
- at Zbrojovka Brno24 Oct · Czech Ligawin 30%
- vs Sparta Praha1 Nov · Czech Ligawin 26%
- at Slovan Liberec7 Nov · Czech Ligawin 25%
Mlada Boleslav
- vs Teplice17 Oct · Czech Ligawin 40%
- at Slavia Praha24 Oct · Czech Ligawin 18%
- vs Hradec Králové1 Nov · Czech Ligawin 39%
- at FK Jablonec8 Nov · Czech Ligawin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.