23 August 2026, 19:30 UTC

Tenerife vs Almeria Segunda División prediction & result

Santa Cruz de Tenerife
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Tenerife 1-0 Almeria.

Before kick-off the model made it 79% Tenerife, 11% draw, 10% Almeria — fair odds of 1.27, 9.09 and 10.00.

Most likely scoreline: 4-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Tenerife at 79%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Tenerife96%Draw4%Almeria0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Jesús Álvarez
9'
⚽Enricassist: N. Gil
32'
46'
🔁A. Solaout: B. Cipenga
David Rodríguez Ramos
53'
🔁I. Chapelaout: N. Lopez
54'
66'
🔁D. Chirinoout: M. Luna
66'
🔁M. Vesgaout: Q. Junyent
🔁V. Morenoout: M. Pecar
72'
🔁Enricout: J. de Miguel
72'
75'
🔁A. Munozout: J. Morcillo
🔁C. Alvarezout: J. Moreno
81'
🔁N. Gilout: A. Krdzalic
81'
87'
🔁A. Embarbaout: Leo Baptistao

Match stats — Tenerife vs Almeria

39%Possession61%
15Shots9
2On target1
5Corners7
1.19xG0.97

Goals against chances

Tenerife1 from 1.19 xGabout what the chances were worth
Almeria0 from 0.97 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Tenerife 4-2-3-1
  • 1D. MartinG
  • 19C. AlvarezD
  • 12A. LandazuriD
  • 4J. LeonD
  • 2D. RodriguezD
  • 16J. AlvarezM
  • 6Juanjo SanchezM
  • 8V. MorenoM
  • 24I. ChapelaM
  • 10N. GilM
  • 18EnricF
Substitutes
  • 40G. De VuystG
  • 21M. MateuD
  • 5J. MorenoD
  • 27N. ViereckD
  • 20M. PittonM
  • 23A. KrdzalicM
  • 15FabricioM
  • 29D. FernandezM
  • 7M. PecarM
Coach: Alvaro Cervera
Almeria 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. FernandezG
  • 22D. ChirinoD
  • 5J. PulidoD
  • 18F. BoniniD
  • 3A. MunozD
  • 29S. DzodicM
  • 6M. VesgaM
  • 20A. SolaM
  • 10N. MelamedM
  • 23A. EmbarbaM
  • 24M. de la FuenteF
Substitutes
  • 13F. MartinezG
  • 30J. LopezG
  • 19Rodrigo ElyD
  • 21ChumiD
  • 2M. LunaD
  • 33Q. JunyentM
  • 17B. CipengaM
  • 12Leo BaptistaoF
  • 7J. MorcilloF
Coach: Javier Garcia Pimienta Francisco

Form going into Tenerife vs Almeria

Tenerife

All competitions we cover

  • W3-1away to Eibar16 August 2026

Almeria

All competitions we cover

  • W3-0Eldense17 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Tenerife123631517-215
1Almeria139222410+1429

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Tenerife vs Almeria

  • 1 June 2025Almeria 2–0 TenerifeSegunda División
  • 24 August 2024Tenerife 0–1 AlmeriaSegunda División
  • 21 March 2022Tenerife 0–1 AlmeriaSegunda División
  • 24 September 2021Almeria 3–1 TenerifeSegunda División
  • 7 May 2021Tenerife 0–1 AlmeriaSegunda División
  • 26 November 2020Almeria 2–0 TenerifeSegunda División

Leading scorers: Tenerife and Almeria

Tenerife

GoalsAssists

  • Enric Gallego81

Almeria

GoalsAssists

  • Miguel de la Fuente81

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Tenerife beat Almeria 1–0. The model had made a win for Tenerife its most likely outcome, at 79%, so the call held; the score it named was 4–1. The goal: Enric 32' for Tenerife. On expected goals it finished 1.19–0.97.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.