Sporting Gijon vs Burgos Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Sporting Gijon 1-0 Burgos.
Before kick-off the model made it 24% Sporting Gijon, 29% draw, 47% Burgos — fair odds of 4.17, 3.45 and 2.13.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Burgos at 47%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sporting Gijon vs Burgos
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1R. YanezG
- 2G. RosasD
- 24A. DunabeitiaD
- 15P. VazquezD
- 44A. CuencaD
- 11K. de la FuenteM
- 14A. CorrederaM
- 8M. RodriguezM
- 20N. IosifovM
- 10C. Gelabert PinaF
- 19J. OteroF
- 13E. AranaG
- 3P. GarciaD
- 26I. MartinezD
- 23J. SaenzD
- 4E. GularteD
- 5D. SanchezD
- 21M. LoumM
- 6N. MartinM
- 27E. PrendesF
- 13A. CanteroG
- 23A. Dadie IzagirreD
- 6S. GonzalezD
- 8G. SierraD
- 3I. VilarrasaD
- 18S. del CerroM
- 14D. Gonzalez BallesterosM
- 20J. GrageraM
- 16C. SanchezM
- 19J. LlabresM
- 9A. ForesF
- 35D. GonzalezG
- 1B. IribarneG
- 22B. MartinezD
- 36I. MartinezD
- 4P. GaldamesM
- 10K. AppinM
- 5M. ExpositoM
- 17M. CanteroM
- 24S. LencinaM
Form going into Sporting Gijon vs Burgos
Sporting Gijon
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Sabadell17 August 2026
Burgos
All competitions we cover
- W3-2Cordoba16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Sporting Gijon | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 22 |
| 3 | Burgos | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 14 | +5 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sporting Gijon vs Burgos
- 11 April 2026Burgos 1–0 Sporting GijonSegunda División
- 14 September 2025Sporting Gijon 2–3 BurgosSegunda División
- 1 February 2025Sporting Gijon 2–0 BurgosSegunda División
- 10 November 2024Burgos 0–2 Sporting GijonSegunda División
- 25 February 2024Burgos 1–0 Sporting GijonSegunda División
- 2 September 2023Sporting Gijon 2–1 BurgosSegunda División
Leading scorers: Sporting Gijon and Burgos
Sporting Gijon
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Burgos
GoalsAssists
- Álex Forés41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sporting Gijon beat Burgos 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Burgos at 47% and given a win for Sporting Gijon 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: J. Otero 6' for Sporting Gijon. On expected goals it finished 0.83–0.67.