Eibar vs Valladolid Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Eibar 1-0 Valladolid.
Before kick-off the model made it 61% Eibar, 20% draw, 19% Valladolid — fair odds of 1.64, 5.00 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Eibar at 61%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Eibar vs Valladolid
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13J. MagunagoitiaG
- 22A. RodriguezD
- 4U. ElgezabalD
- 23A. ArbillaD
- 24J. BernatD
- 30A. GarridoM
- 6S. AlvarezM
- 17PejinoM
- 11J. Magunazelaia ArgoitiaM
- 10J. GuruzetaM
- 9J. BautistaF
- 1L. LopezG
- 2S. CuberoD
- 15J. AmadorD
- 18M. AranaD
- 21I. GilM
- 28L. NunezM
- 8A. MadariagaM
- 20Javier MartonF
- 7A. AresF
- 1A. AcevesG
- 14I. AlejoD
- 5R. MartinezD
- 4D. TorresD
- 27I. GarrielD
- 8T. OjedaM
- 21J. PonceauM
- 11Y. CabanzonM
- 7L. ChaconM
- 22K. de RooijM
- 9J. LatasaF
- 31H. WauthierG
- 18C. ClercD
- 2TrilliD
- 35A. GaldeanoD
- 6M. LachuerM
- 16A. BalboaM
- 15P. TomeoD
- 28D. Perez GuerreroM
- 20R. van DuivenF
Form going into Eibar vs Valladolid
Eibar
All competitions we cover
- L1-3Tenerife16 August 2026
Valladolid
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to Mallorca15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Eibar | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 14 | +7 | 23 |
| 12 | Valladolid | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 20 | +2 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Eibar vs Valladolid
- 13 April 2026Valladolid 0–0 EibarSegunda División
- 19 December 2025Eibar 3–0 ValladolidSegunda División
- 24 March 2024Valladolid 3–1 EibarSegunda División
- 27 October 2023Eibar 5–1 ValladolidSegunda División
- 8 May 2022Eibar 0–2 ValladolidSegunda División
- 31 October 2021Valladolid 2–0 EibarSegunda División
Leading scorers: Eibar and Valladolid
Eibar
GoalsAssists
- Iván Gil41
Valladolid
GoalsAssists
- Adrian Arnuncio51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Eibar beat Valladolid 1–0. The model had made a win for Eibar its most likely outcome, at 61%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: A. Rodriguez 64' for Eibar. On expected goals it finished 1.54–0.46.