Elche vs Barcelona La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Elche 0-5 Barcelona.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% Elche, 25% draw, 46% Barcelona — fair odds of 3.45, 4.00 and 2.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Barcelona at 46%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Elche vs Barcelona
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. DituroG
- 2Buba SangareD
- 22D. AffengruberD
- 5F. Redondo SolariD
- 23V. ChustD
- 11G. ValeraD
- 20Tete MorenteM
- 12G. VillarM
- 8M. AguadoM
- 29A. HouaryM
- 14F. NinoF
- 43A. IturbeG
- 26M. BarzicD
- 6P. BigasD
- 19G. DianganaF
- 16M. NetoM
- 47J. MorcilloM
- 10F. BuonanotteM
- 9E. PonceF
- 17JosanM
- 1J. GarciaG
- 24E. GarciaD
- 15A. ChristensenD
- 18G. MartinD
- 36X. EspartD
- 22M. BernalM
- 6GaviM
- 10Lamine YamalM
- 7FermínM
- 14K. AdeyemiM
- 11RaphinhaF
- 13W. SzczesnyG
- 31E. AllerG
- 23J. KoundeD
- 26A. CortesD
- 2J. CanceloD
- 5P. CubarsiD
- 33Jordi PesquerD
- 8PedriM
- 28Brian FarinasM
Form going into Elche vs Barcelona
Elche
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Deportivo La Coruna17 August 2026
Barcelona
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Elche | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 10 |
| 1 | Barcelona | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 48 | 13 | +35 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Elche vs Barcelona
- 31 January 2026Elche 1–3 BarcelonaLa Liga
- 2 November 2025Barcelona 3–1 ElcheLa Liga
- 1 April 2023Elche 0–4 BarcelonaLa Liga
- 17 September 2022Barcelona 3–0 ElcheLa Liga
- 6 March 2022Elche 1–2 BarcelonaLa Liga
Leading scorers: Elche and Barcelona
Elche
GoalsAssists
- Fer Niño60
Barcelona
GoalsAssists
- Raphinha153
- Lamine Yamal108
- Fermín75
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Barcelona won 5–0 at Elche. The model had made a win for Barcelona its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Raphinha (penalty) 14' for Barcelona, K. Adeyemi 45' for Barcelona, Raphinha 67' for Barcelona, Fermin 71' for Barcelona, Fermin 79' for Barcelona. On expected goals it finished 0.72–4.13.