Telstar
vs
Cambuur
Eredivisie prediction
The model makes it 71% Telstar, 17% draw, 12% Cambuur — fair odds of 1.41, 5.88 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Telstar 2.54, Cambuur 0.97.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Telstar
- L1-3Sparta Rotterdam14 August 2026
- W2-1away to NEC Nijmegen8 August 2026
Cambuur
- L1-3away to Fortuna Sittard15 August 2026
- L0-4Excelsior7 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Telstar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3 |
| 18 | Cambuur | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Telstar vs Cambuur
- 19 July 2025Cambuur 0–2 TelstarFriendlies Clubs
- 31 January 2025Cambuur 2–1 TelstarEerste Divisie
- 29 November 2024Telstar 2–2 CambuurEerste Divisie
- 23 March 2024Cambuur 1–0 TelstarEerste Divisie
- 18 August 2023Telstar 2–3 CambuurEerste Divisie
- 16 July 2022Cambuur 2–1 TelstarFriendlies Clubs
The two sides
Telstar carry a model rating of 6.83 against 6.5 for Cambuur. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Telstar W-L; Cambuur L-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.54 goals for Telstar and 0.97 for Cambuur. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Telstar rate 0.84 in attack and 0.89 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cambuur rate 0.78 and 1.60.
That points to 68% for over two and a half goals and 58% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 3-0 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Telstar the highest probability at 71%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.54 expected goals for Telstar against 0.97 for Cambuur. Telstar's attack/defence rating is 0.84/0.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.6 for Cambuur.