Marseille
vs
Paris FC
Ligue 1 prediction
The model makes it 39% Marseille, 21% draw, 40% Paris FC — fair odds of 2.56, 4.76 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Marseille 2.00, Paris FC 2.05.
Both teams to score: 76%. Over 2.5 goals: 77%, under 2.5: 23%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Marseille
- W4-0Strasbourg21 August 2026
Paris FC
- D0-0away to Estac Troyes22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marseille | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 7 | Paris FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Marseille vs Paris FC
- 31 January 2026Paris FC 2–2 MarseilleLigue 1
- 23 August 2025Marseille 5–2 Paris FCLigue 1
Leading scorers
Marseille
- A. Gouiri2 goals
- K. Abdallah1 goals
- P. Højbjerg1 goals
Paris FC
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Marseille carry a model rating of 6.94 against 7.1 for Paris FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Marseille W; Paris FC D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.00 goals for Marseille and 2.05 for Paris FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Marseille rate 1.26 in attack and 1.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Paris FC rate 1.37 and 0.84.
That points to 77% for over two and a half goals and 76% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (7%), 2-2 (7%), 1-2 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Marseille, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Paris FC the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2 expected goals for Marseille against 2.05 for Paris FC. Marseille's attack/defence rating is 1.26/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.37/0.84 for Paris FC.