Angers
vs
Rennes
Ligue 1 prediction
The model makes it 28% Angers, 21% draw, 51% Rennes — fair odds of 3.57, 4.76 and 1.96. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (8%).
Expected goals: Angers 1.67, Rennes 2.25.
Both teams to score: 73%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%, under 2.5: 25%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Angers vs Rennes
- 11 April 2026Rennes 2–1 AngersLigue 1
- 31 August 2025Angers 1–1 RennesLigue 1
- 30 March 2025Angers 0–3 RennesLigue 1
- 15 December 2024Rennes 2–0 AngersLigue 1
- 27 July 2024Rennes 2–1 AngersFriendlies Clubs
- 30 April 2023Rennes 4–2 AngersLigue 1
The two sides
Angers carry a model rating of 6.54 against 6.86 for Rennes. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.67 goals for Angers and 2.25 for Rennes. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Angers rate 0.73 in attack and 1.35 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rennes rate 1.19 and 1.21.
That points to 75% for over two and a half goals and 73% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (8%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rennes the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Angers against 2.25 for Rennes. Angers's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.19/1.21 for Rennes.