Talleres Cordoba
vs
Union Santa Fe
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Talleres Cordoba 2-1 Union Santa Fe.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Talleres Cordoba, 27% draw, 36% Union Santa Fe — fair odds of 2.70, 3.70 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Talleres Cordoba 1.66, Union Santa Fe 1.62.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Talleres Cordoba vs Union Santa Fe
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Talleres Cordoba at 37% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Talleres Cordoba vs Union Santa Fe
Talleres Cordoba
- L0-1away to San Lorenzo5 September 2026
- D0-0Central Cordoba de Santiago30 August 2026
- D2-2Rosario Central25 August 2026
- L1-3away to Gimnasia Mendoza18 August 2026
Union Santa Fe
- W3-2Instituto Cordoba8 September 2026
- W4-1Sarmiento Junin28 August 2026
- W3-1away to Aldosivi21 August 2026
- L0-1away to San Lorenzo15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Talleres Cordoba | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 8 |
| 8 | Union Santa Fe | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Talleres Cordoba vs Union Santa Fe
- 2 May 2026Union Santa Fe 1–1 Talleres CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 27 November 2024Union Santa Fe 2–3 Talleres CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 11 July 2023Talleres Cordoba 0–0 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
- 20 October 2022Talleres Cordoba 2–2 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
- 18 February 2022Talleres Cordoba 0–0 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
- 22 August 2021Union Santa Fe 1–2 Talleres CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Talleres Cordoba and Union Santa Fe
Talleres Cordoba
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Union Santa Fe
- C. Tarragona14 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Talleres Cordoba carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.65 for Union Santa Fe. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.66 goals for Talleres Cordoba and 1.62 for Union Santa Fe. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Talleres Cordoba rate 0.83 in attack and 1.62 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Union Santa Fe rate 0.83 and 1.23.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Union Santa Fe, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Talleres Cordoba a 0% chance of the title and Union Santa Fe 2.9%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Talleres Cordoba the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Talleres Cordoba against 1.62 for Union Santa Fe. Talleres Cordoba's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.62 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.23 for Union Santa Fe.