AIK Stockholm vs Vasteras SK FK Allsvenskan prediction & result
Final score: AIK Stockholm 1-4 Vasteras SK FK.
Before kick-off the model made it 56% AIK Stockholm, 22% draw, 22% Vasteras SK FK — fair odds of 1.79, 4.55 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AIK Stockholm at 56% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — AIK Stockholm vs Vasteras SK FK
Line-ups
- 15K. NordfeldtG
- 17M. ThychosenD
- 34W. OlofssonD
- 3H. MatthysD
- 5L. BergquistD
- 46Yannick GeigerM
- 8J. HoveM
- 18A. AliM
- 48A. KouameM
- 9L. CarlstrandF
- 10L. AssadiF
- 47L. CamaraD
- 2E. EdhD
- 16Sixten GustafssonF
- 20S. HausnerD
- 28L. JäretegM
- 30K. JoelssonG
- 7A. MujanićM
- 49O. PukelisD
- 43N. StaykovF
- 34E. JägerG
- 24J. TagessonD
- 4P. BondeD
- 21V. WernerssonD
- 11S. GefvertM
- 30M. HellisdalM
- 8M. DiagneM
- 15J. KarlssonM
- 19J. MagnussonF
- 16Bonaventure LendambiF
- 5K. GunnarssonF
- 1A. FagerströmG
- 26Levi HansasM
- 28Madiou KeitaD
- 14I. LushakuM
- 18Frédéric NsabiyumvaD
- 7A. BoudahF
- 23P. AmoranD
- 9C. RisbjergF
- 20M. LjungqvistD
Form going into AIK Stockholm vs Vasteras SK FK
AIK Stockholm
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to Malmo FF7 September 2026
- W3-2Hammarby FF30 August 2026
- W3-1away to Djurgardens IF16 August 2026
- W4-3away to Orgryte IS8 August 2026
- L0-3Orgryte IS2 August 2026
Vasteras SK FK
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Sirius5 September 2026
- W3-1away to BK Hacken29 August 2026
- D0-0Kalmar FF23 August 2026
- L0-3away to IF Elfsborg14 August 2026
- W1-0Djurgardens IF10 August 2026
What these results say
- AIK Stockholm conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for AIK Stockholm had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | AIK Stockholm | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 42 | 45 | -3 | 38 |
| 6 | Vasteras SK FK | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 39 | 38 | +1 | 41 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: AIK Stockholm vs Vasteras SK FK
- 28 June 2026AIK Stockholm 3–2 Vasteras SK FKFriendlies Clubs
- 17 May 2026Vasteras SK FK 1–1 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
- 22 February 2026AIK Stockholm 0–2 Vasteras SK FKSvenska Cupen
- 3 August 2024Vasteras SK FK 1–2 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
- 1 April 2024AIK Stockholm 1–0 Vasteras SK FKAllsvenskan
Leading scorers: AIK Stockholm and Vasteras SK FK
AIK Stockholm
GoalsAssists
- J. Hove103
Vasteras SK FK
GoalsAssists
- A. Taonsa101
- M. Ladefoged92
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Vasteras SK FK won 4–1 at AIK Stockholm. The model had leaned towards a win for AIK Stockholm at 56% and given a win for Vasteras SK FK 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Johan Hove (penalty) 24' for AIK Stockholm, jens magnusson 60' for Vasteras SK FK, Mamadou Diagne 69' for Vasteras SK FK, Ismet Lushaku 71' for Vasteras SK FK, Abdelrahman Saidi 78' for Vasteras SK FK.
How the call on AIK Stockholm v Vasteras SK FK has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 52% / 23% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 56% / 22% / 22%: the biggest move is AIK Stockholm's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- AIK Stockholm win56%▲ +4
- Draw22%▼ −1
- Vasteras SK FK win22%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.