AIK Stockholm
vs
Vasteras SK FK
Allsvenskan prediction & result
Final score: AIK Stockholm 1-4 Vasteras SK FK.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% AIK Stockholm, 25% draw, 27% Vasteras SK FK — fair odds of 2.08, 4.00 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: AIK Stockholm 2.30, Vasteras SK FK 1.44.
Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: AIK Stockholm vs Vasteras SK FK
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AIK Stockholm at 48% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — AIK Stockholm vs Vasteras SK FK
Line-ups
- 15K. NordfeldtG
- 17M. ThychosenD
- 34W. OlofssonD
- 3H. MatthysD
- 5L. BergquistD
- 46Yannick GeigerM
- 8J. HoveM
- 18A. AliM
- 48A. KouameM
- 9L. CarlstrandF
- 10L. AssadiF
- 47L. CamaraD
- 2E. EdhD
- 16Sixten GustafssonF
- 20S. HausnerD
- 28L. JäretegM
- 30K. JoelssonG
- 7A. MujanićM
- 49O. PukelisD
- 43N. StaykovF
- 34E. JägerG
- 24J. TagessonD
- 4P. BondeD
- 21V. WernerssonD
- 11S. GefvertM
- 30M. HellisdalM
- 8M. DiagneM
- 15J. KarlssonM
- 19J. MagnussonF
- 16Bonaventure LendambiF
- 5K. GunnarssonF
- 1A. FagerströmG
- 26Levi HansasM
- 28Madiou KeitaD
- 14I. LushakuM
- 18Frédéric NsabiyumvaD
- 7A. BoudahF
- 23P. AmoranD
- 9C. RisbjergF
- 20M. LjungqvistD
Form going into AIK Stockholm vs Vasteras SK FK
AIK Stockholm
- D0-0away to Malmo FF7 September 2026
- W3-2Hammarby FF30 August 2026
- W3-1away to Djurgardens IF16 August 2026
- W4-3away to Orgryte IS8 August 2026
Vasteras SK FK
- L0-1Sirius5 September 2026
- W3-1away to BK Hacken29 August 2026
- D0-0Kalmar FF23 August 2026
- L0-3away to IF Elfsborg14 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | AIK Stockholm | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 29 | 31 | -2 | 32 |
| 8 | Vasteras SK FK | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 32 | 35 | -3 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: AIK Stockholm vs Vasteras SK FK
- 12 September 2026AIK Stockholm 1–4 Vasteras SK FKAllsvenskan
- 28 June 2026AIK Stockholm 3–2 Vasteras SK FKFriendlies Clubs
- 17 May 2026Vasteras SK FK 1–1 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
- 22 February 2026AIK Stockholm 0–2 Vasteras SK FKSvenska Cupen
- 3 August 2024Vasteras SK FK 1–2 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
- 1 April 2024AIK Stockholm 1–0 Vasteras SK FKAllsvenskan
Leading scorers: AIK Stockholm and Vasteras SK FK
AIK Stockholm
No player in Allsvenskan's leading scorers — 29 league goals as a side.
Vasteras SK FK
- M. Ladefoged9 goals2 assists
- A. Taonsa6 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.30 goals for AIK Stockholm and 1.44 for Vasteras SK FK; the game produced 1 and 4.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Johan Hove 24' (AIK Stockholm), jens magnusson 60' (Vasteras SK FK), Mamadou Diagne 69' (Vasteras SK FK), Ismet Lushaku 71' (Vasteras SK FK), Abdelrahman Saidi 78' (Vasteras SK FK).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AIK Stockholm the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.3 expected goals for AIK Stockholm against 1.44 for Vasteras SK FK. AIK Stockholm's attack/defence rating is 1.09/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/1.3 for Vasteras SK FK.