Independiente Rivadavia
vs
Aldosivi
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Independiente Rivadavia 4-3 Aldosivi.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% Independiente Rivadavia, 25% draw, 25% Aldosivi — fair odds of 2.00, 4.00 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Independiente Rivadavia 2.32, Aldosivi 1.32.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Model insights: Independiente Rivadavia vs Aldosivi
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Independiente Rivadavia at 50% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Independiente Rivadavia vs Aldosivi
Independiente Rivadavia
- L1-3away to River Plate6 September 2026
- W3-1Racing Club31 August 2026
- D0-0away to Independiente22 August 2026
- L0-2away to Belgrano Cordoba15 August 2026
- W2-1Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto8 August 2026
Aldosivi
- W3-1Banfield5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Argentinos Juniors30 August 2026
- L1-3Union Santa Fe21 August 2026
- D0-0Tigre15 August 2026
- L1-2away to Rosario Central7 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Independiente Rivadavia vs Aldosivi
- 26 August 2026Aldosivi 0–2 Independiente RivadaviaCopa Argentina
- 3 May 2026Aldosivi 1–1 Independiente RivadaviaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 1 November 2025Aldosivi 3–1 Independiente RivadaviaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 23 April 2025Independiente Rivadavia 1–0 AldosiviLiga Profesional Argentina
- 17 June 2023Independiente Rivadavia 2–1 AldosiviPrimera Nacional
- 10 February 2023Aldosivi 1–2 Independiente RivadaviaPrimera Nacional
Leading scorers: Independiente Rivadavia and Aldosivi
Independiente Rivadavia
- A. Arce9 goals1 assists
- F. Sartori8 goals
Aldosivi
No leading scorers listed yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Independiente Rivadavia carry a model rating of 6.66 against 6.53 for Aldosivi. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.32 goals for Independiente Rivadavia and 1.32 for Aldosivi. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Independiente Rivadavia rate 0.91 in attack and 1.35 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Aldosivi rate 0.81 and 1.57.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Independiente Rivadavia the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.32 expected goals for Independiente Rivadavia against 1.32 for Aldosivi. Independiente Rivadavia's attack/defence rating is 0.91/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.57 for Aldosivi.