Independiente Rivadavia vs Aldosivi Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Independiente Rivadavia 4-3 Aldosivi.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Independiente Rivadavia, 26% draw, 27% Aldosivi — fair odds of 2.13, 3.85 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Independiente Rivadavia at 47% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Independiente Rivadavia vs Aldosivi
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30N. BolcatoG
- 28A. VigoD
- 40I. VillalbaD
- 2L. CostaD
- 3J. M. ElordiD
- 11G. RiosM
- 5T. BottariM
- 25J. I. Florentin BobadillaM
- 43F. SartoriM
- 17M. SalasF
- 9A. ArceF
- 21E. F. Gomez RigaG
- 10M. FernandezM
- 13A. OsellaD
- 8L. BuccaM
- 34S. MoreyraM
- 27D. CregoM
- 77L. SequeiraM
- 20A. RiepM
- 32K. A. VazquezM
- 42L. AcostaG
- 14E. LopezD
- 25N. BreitenbruchD
- 32J. PomboD
- 38M. ValesD
- 8M. GarciaM
- 19L. CastroM
- 27T. FernandezM
- 10N. GaitanM
- 24F. AnsoM
- 9N. CorderoF
- 23I. ChiccoG
- 28S. MoyaD
- 33N. ZalazarD
- 4R. GonzalezD
- 15F. PerruzziM
- 37P. ArgoytiaM
- 18A. ChavezF
- 21M. GodoyM
- 16B. DadinF
Form going into Independiente Rivadavia vs Aldosivi
Independiente Rivadavia
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to River Plate6 September 2026
- W3-1Racing Club31 August 2026
- D0-0away to Independiente22 August 2026
- L0-2away to Belgrano Cordoba15 August 2026
- W2-1Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto8 August 2026
Aldosivi
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Banfield5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Argentinos Juniors30 August 2026
- L1-3Union Santa Fe21 August 2026
- D0-0Tigre15 August 2026
- L1-2away to Rosario Central7 August 2026
What these results say
- Independiente Rivadavia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aldosivi failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aldosivi scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aldosivi conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Independiente Rivadavia | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 19 |
| 14 | Aldosivi | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Independiente Rivadavia vs Aldosivi
- 26 August 2026Aldosivi 0–2 Independiente RivadaviaCopa Argentina
- 3 May 2026Aldosivi 1–1 Independiente RivadaviaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 1 November 2025Aldosivi 3–1 Independiente RivadaviaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 23 April 2025Independiente Rivadavia 1–0 AldosiviLiga Profesional Argentina
- 17 June 2023Independiente Rivadavia 2–1 AldosiviPrimera Nacional
- 10 February 2023Aldosivi 1–2 Independiente RivadaviaPrimera Nacional
Leading scorers: Independiente Rivadavia and Aldosivi
Independiente Rivadavia
GoalsAssists
- A. Arce91
- F. Sartori80
- J. Florentín71
Aldosivi
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Independiente Rivadavia beat Aldosivi 4–3. The model had made a win for Independiente Rivadavia its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: G. Rios 10' for Independiente Rivadavia, T. Fernandez 13' for Aldosivi, J. I. Florentin Bobadilla 19' for Independiente Rivadavia, A. Arce (penalty) 45' for Independiente Rivadavia, L. Castro 59' for Aldosivi, A. Arce 75' for Independiente Rivadavia, J. Pombo 90' for Aldosivi. On expected goals it finished 2.58–2.16.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.