26 September 2026, 14:00 UTC

Swindon Town vs Accrington Stanley League Two prediction & result

County Ground, Swindon
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Swindon Town 1-1 Accrington Stanley.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Swindon Town, 28% draw, 29% Accrington Stanley — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Swindon Town at 43%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Swindon Town5%Draw91%Accrington Stanley4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

1'
⚽Josh Woodsassist: Stefan Mols
⚽Joseph Hungboassist: Dan Butler
31'
45'
🔁Liam Coyleout: Alex Henderson
Kaelan Majekodunmi
51'
66'
Josh Woods
🔁Ollie Clarkeout: Matthew Virtue-Thick
67'
🔁Paul Glatzelout: antwoine hackford
67'
🔁Joseph Hungboout: Daniel Butterworth
68'
68'
🔁Tyler Waltonout: Cole Stockton
68'
🔁Stefan Molsout: Charlie Warren
🔁James Ballout: James Debayo
71'
🔁Dan Butlerout: Billy Kirkman
80'
83'
🔁Josh Woodsout: Joel Catesby

Match stats — Swindon Town vs Accrington Stanley

58%Possession42%
11Shots12
5On target4
6Corners7

Line-ups

Swindon Town 4-3-3
  • 1C. RipleyG
  • 6J. BallD
  • 5S. NegruD
  • 21K. MajekodunmiD
  • 26D. ButlerD
  • 27A. MundaM
  • 25J. ThomsonM
  • 8O. ClarkeM
  • 9P. GlatzelF
  • 23A. DrinanF
  • 15J. HungboF
Substitutes
  • 14D. ButterworthM
  • 18J. DebayoD
  • 29A. HackfordF
  • 34B. KirkmanD
  • 7T. NicholsM
  • 24M. Virtue-ThickM
  • 12Lewis Moore WardG
Coach: Ian Holloway
Accrington Stanley 3-4-1-2
  • 1L. MouldenG
  • 17D. MatthewsD
  • 28S. ConneelyD
  • 22J. AndersonD
  • 38C. O'BrienM
  • 2D. LoveM
  • 6L. CoyleM
  • 33D. TutondaM
  • 14Stefan MolsM
  • 39J. WoodsF
  • 23T. WaltonF
Substitutes
  • 30C. WarrenF
  • 13C. StocktonF
  • 25J. SmithD
  • 21J. RogersonG
  • 10Alex HendersonM
  • 27J. CatesbyF
  • 20C. BrownF
Coach: J. Doolan

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Swindon Town145451517-219
9Accrington Stanley144732317+619

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Swindon Town vs Accrington Stanley

  • 18 April 2026Swindon Town 2–2 Accrington StanleyLeague Two
  • 18 October 2025Accrington Stanley 4–0 Swindon TownLeague Two
  • 22 March 2025Swindon Town 0–0 Accrington StanleyLeague Two
  • 30 November 2024Accrington Stanley 2–2 Swindon TownFA Cup
  • 16 November 2024Accrington Stanley 2–2 Swindon TownLeague Two

Leading scorers: Swindon Town and Accrington Stanley

Swindon Town

GoalsAssists

  • A. Drinan81

Accrington Stanley

GoalsAssists

  • J. Woods71
  • C. Caton50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Swindon Town and Accrington Stanley drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Swindon Town at 43% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Josh Woods 1' for Accrington Stanley, Joseph Hungbo 31' for Swindon Town.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.