Swindon Town
vs
Accrington Stanley
League Two prediction
Our model says: Swindon Town 2–1 Accrington Stanley
The model makes it 43% Swindon Town, 28% draw, 29% Accrington Stanley — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Swindon Town 1.77, Accrington Stanley 1.26.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Swindon Town vs Accrington Stanley
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Swindon Town at 43% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 1297 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Swindon Town vs Accrington Stanley
Swindon Town
- L0-1away to Salford City19 September 2026
- L0-4away to York12 September 2026
- W3-1Colchester5 September 2026
- W3-1Port Vale1 September 2026
- L0-3away to Oldham29 August 2026
Accrington Stanley
- D0-0Newport County19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Barnet12 September 2026
- W3-2Crawley Town5 September 2026
- D2-2Grimsby1 September 2026
- L2-3away to Walsall29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Swindon Town | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 10 |
| 21 | Accrington Stanley | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Swindon Town vs Accrington Stanley
- 18 April 2026Swindon Town 2–2 Accrington StanleyLeague Two
- 18 October 2025Accrington Stanley 4–0 Swindon TownLeague Two
- 22 March 2025Swindon Town 0–0 Accrington StanleyLeague Two
- 30 November 2024Accrington Stanley 2–2 Swindon TownFA Cup
- 16 November 2024Accrington Stanley 2–2 Swindon TownLeague Two
- 12 March 2024Swindon Town 1–2 Accrington StanleyLeague Two
Leading scorers: Swindon Town and Accrington Stanley
Swindon Town
- A. Drinan5 goals
Accrington Stanley
- C. Caton5 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Swindon Town carry a model rating of 6.1 against 6.03 for Accrington Stanley. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.77 goals for Swindon Town and 1.26 for Accrington Stanley. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Swindon Town rate 0.51 in attack and 2.28 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Accrington Stanley rate 0.46 and 2.39.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Swindon Town a 0.3% chance of the title and Accrington Stanley 0.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Swindon Town the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Swindon Town against 1.26 for Accrington Stanley. Swindon Town's attack/defence rating is 0.51/2.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/2.39 for Accrington Stanley.