Shrewsbury
vs
Colchester
League Two prediction
Our model says: Shrewsbury 0–1 Colchester
The model makes it 30% Shrewsbury, 31% draw, 39% Colchester — fair odds of 3.33, 3.23 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Shrewsbury 1.03, Colchester 1.30.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Shrewsbury vs Colchester
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Colchester at 39% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 2139 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Shrewsbury vs Colchester
Shrewsbury
- D1-1away to Crewe19 September 2026
- W2-0Northampton12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Fleetwood Town5 September 2026
- L0-3away to Rochdale1 September 2026
- W1-0Salford City29 August 2026
Colchester
- D1-1Cheltenham19 September 2026
- D1-1Crewe12 September 2026
- L1-3away to Swindon Town5 September 2026
- L0-2away to Bristol Rovers1 September 2026
- W1-0Rochdale29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Shrewsbury | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 7 |
| 15 | Colchester | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Shrewsbury vs Colchester
- 7 February 2026Colchester 2–0 ShrewsburyLeague Two
- 16 August 2025Shrewsbury 0–2 ColchesterLeague Two
- 4 November 2023Shrewsbury 3–2 ColchesterFA Cup
- 27 February 2016Colchester 0–0 ShrewsburyLeague One
- 10 October 2015Shrewsbury 4–2 ColchesterLeague One
- 18 March 2014Colchester 1–0 ShrewsburyLeague One
The two sides
Shrewsbury carry a model rating of 5.94 against 6.15 for Colchester. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.03 goals for Shrewsbury and 1.30 for Colchester. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Shrewsbury rate 0.37 in attack and 2.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Colchester rate 0.47 and 1.91.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Shrewsbury a 0.1% chance of the title and Colchester 0.2%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Colchester the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Shrewsbury against 1.3 for Colchester. Shrewsbury's attack/defence rating is 0.37/2.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.91 for Colchester.